PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 12:08 AM EDT288
FXUS61 KPBZ 160408
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1208 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers drop in coverage and transition to snow north
of I-80 and in the ridges tonight. High pressure promotes dry
conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances return Thursday
night with a warm front and rise more widespread on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower coverage decreases this evening
- Scattered snow showers tonight
- Winds diminish some overnight
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Late evening update...
Maintained POPs for showers a few more hours with the axis of a
500mb trough crossing the area. These should taper off
overnight, though not before mixing with or changing to snow in
some areas. Most of any accumulation will be across the higher
terrain, though some light snowfall amounts are possible north
of PIT.
Early evening update...
Showers continue to slowly diminish as the moisture aloft
streaks northeastward with the exiting shortwave trough. Expect
scattered showers to continue through much of the evening. Have
updated overnight PoPs and temperatures. Also made some minor
adjustments to weather types, trying to better time a mix with
and change over to snow showers.
Previous discussion...
Mid-level warming and low-level cooling act to weaken lapse
rates late this evening, helping to diminish shower coverage
across the region. Another upper trough moves through overnight
with continued shower coverage in the ridges and north of I-80,
where cold advection helps to turn remaining rain showers over
to snow showers. For most areas snowfall will be minimal to none
with totals near an inch possible at the highest elevations of
the Pennsylvania and West Virginia ridges.
Continued cold advection will push overnight lows back into the
30s areawide with cold spots north of I-80 standing a ~60%
chance to see the upper 20s. Wind gusts diminish across the
region overnight, but wind remains above criteria in eastern
Tucker County through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry Wednesday and Thursday
- Below average temperatures Wednesday rise towards average
Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
500mb heights are on the rise by Wednesday as the upper trough
exits eastward. Surface high pressure begins to build across
the region supporting dry weather through Thursday. Temperatures
will remain 10- 15 degrees below average on Wednesday before
rebounding back towards average on Thursday.
With the growing season started in portions of the area (mainly
south of I-70) frost could be a concern Thursday morning with
lows near freezing, limited clouds and calm winds under high
pressure.
The high will slide east of the area Thursday night, as a warm
front approaches from the west. Rain chances return late
Thursday night mainly across NW PA and E OH ahead of the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing shower chances Saturday
- Mainly dry Sunday
- Above average temperatures through much of the period
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range ensembles favor an upper ridge sliding over top of us
on Friday. This combined with southerly flow in the warm sector
of a Great Lakes low will help to push high temperatures back
well into the 70s with Pittsburgh sporting a 48% chance to crack
80 degrees. POPs look to remain low through the day Friday
before rising Friday night as an upper shortwave flattens the
ridge and moves through Friday night into Saturday.
This shortwave and its associated surface cold front are
currently progged to advance through the region Saturday with
showers and possible thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in
how far south this front advances but ensembles continue to
favor upper ridge building across the Ohio Valley that would
support a more southward push.
An upper trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest Monday
and approach the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Long range ensembles
show a myriad of results for the depth of this wave and any
possible flattening of the ridging in place. Rain chances should
increase as the trough and surface low approach. Temperatures
are expected to be above average through most of the period,
with cooler temperatures on Sunday behind the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest guidance has been relatively consistent in showing
scattered showers across the region ending overnight as
subsidence increases under a ridge building in from the west.
However, MVFR stratocu will linger longer before diminishing
this afternoon as drier air moves in. Winds will remain gusty
as the low levels remain mixed, but trend down over the period
before finally becoming light with decoupling this evening.
Outlook...
Dry weather continues on Thursday with building high pressure
before another round of precipitation and restriction potential
returns later on Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...WM/22/AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 12:08 AM EDT---------------
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