ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 12:22 AM EDT584
FXUS61 KILN 160422
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1222 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Wednesday arrives dry and sunny, with a subtle warm up. Rain,
thunderstorms, and breezy conditions return to the forecast for the
end of the work week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Minor shortwave will be exiting through central Ohio early in the
overnight, taking scattered showers with it. Clouds will then
decrease through the rest of the overnight as high pressure begins to
build into the CWA. Due to the clearing trend, still wouldn't be
surprised to see some patchy frost develop toward morning, so have
kept this in the grids across the north and west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Large scale ridging moves over the region on Wednesday coupled with
surface high pressure. Clouds clear out, allowing for mostly sunny
skies and light northwesterly flow. High temperatures reach the mid
to upper 50s.
To our west, a shortwave moving over the Rockies will begin to
deepen and organize on the lee side of the mountains by Wednesday
evening, with the surface feature beginning to lift a warm front
northward into the Ohio Valley.
Consequentially, the high pressure is shunted east and will be
briefly located right over the CWA, resulting in calm to nearly calm
winds during Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning. High clouds
begin to build in from the west, so we'll have a bit of a temperature
gradient across the region with overnight lows in the far
west/southwest in the upper 30s/low 40s while lows in central Ohio
only reach the mid 30s. The quiet conditions combined with cold
temperatures will likely result frost formation. Take steps early to
protect sensitive vegetation.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While the start of the long term is expected to be dry, an active
weather pattern takes shape for the long term time period.
Precipitation chances Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
will primarily be limited to western portions of the region and
northern portions of region across parts of Indiana and north of
Interstate 70 in Ohio. Southerly flow will allow for temperatures in
the 60s on Thursday and 70s on Friday. Winds will be gusty on Friday
with wind gusts to 40 mph. Will add wind mention to HWO.
Friday night through the remainder of the long term there will be
the potential for several waves of precipitation across the region.
Cannot rule out the potential for severe weather Friday night as
storms move into the region. The primary focus for this would be
northwest of Interstate 71. Will hold off on mentioning in the HWO
for now, however will continue to evaluate the need for potential
future communication on the severe threat. There is another
potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon as well. Since there
are multiple waves of showers and storms expected there is also a
potential flooding threat as well.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Slow winding down of winds and gusts is expected early in the TAF
period as stratocumulus deck begins to scatter. Have held on to both
an hour or two beyond guidance but will eventually have clearing
late this evening.
VFR conditions are expected on Wednesday as high pressure builds into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will keep northwesterly winds
generally below 12 knots... though can't rule out a gust or two in
the 15-20 knot range.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible along with a chance of
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 12:22 AM EDT---------------
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