PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 15, 3:27 PM EDT338
FXUS61 KPBZ 151927
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
327 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers drop in coverage and transition to snow north
of I-80 and in the ridges tonight. High pressure promotes dry
conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances return Thursday
night with a warm front and rise more widespread on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gusty showers with small hail lessen in coverage this
afternoon
- Scattered snow showers tonight
- Winds diminish some overnight
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An upper trough sliding through the region has combined with
steep low-level lapse rates to spur widespread showers today.
These showers can bring gusty winds between 45-55 mph to the
lowlands and possibly as high as 60 mph in the ridges. Winds in
the lowlands through the midday have been near/north of the 95th
percentile from the NBM. Showers can also bring bouts of small
hail and a clap or two of thunder through the afternoon.
Mid-level warming and low-level cooling act to weaken lapse
rates late this afternoon, helping to diminish shower coverage
across the region. Another upper trough moves through overnight
with continued shower coverage in the ridges and north of I-80,
where cold advection helps to turn remaining rain showers over
to snow showers. For most areas snowfall will be minimal to none
with totals near an inch possible at the highest elevations of
the Pennsylvania and West Virginia ridges.
Continued cold advection will push overnight lows back into the
30s areawide with cold spots north of I-80 standing a ~60%
chance to see the upper 20s. Wind gusts diminish across the
region overnight, but wind remains above criteria in eastern
Tucker County through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry Wednesday and Thursday
- Below average temperatures Wednesday rise towards average
Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
500mb heights are on the rise by Wednesday as the upper trough
exits eastward. Surface high pressure begins to build across
the region supporting dry weather through Thursday. Temperatures
will remain 10- 15 degrees below average on Wednesday before
rebounding back towards average on Thursday.
With the growing season started in portions of the area (mainly
south of I-70) frost could be a concern Thursday morning with
lows near freezing, limited clouds and calm winds under high
pressure.
The high will slide east of the area Thursday night, as a warm
front approaches from the west. Rain chances return late
Thursday night mainly across NW PA and E OH ahead of the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing shower chances Saturday
- Mainly dry Sunday
- Above average temperatures through much of the period
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range ensembles favor an upper ridge sliding over top of us
on Friday. This combined with southerly flow in the warm sector
of a Great Lakes low will help to push high temperatures back
well into the 70s with Pittsburgh sporting a 48% chance to crack
80 degrees. POPs look to remain low through the day Friday
before rising Friday night as an upper shortwave flattens the
ridge and moves through Friday night into Saturday.
This shortwave and its associated surface cold front are
currently progged to advance through the region Saturday with
showers and possible thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in
how far south this front advances but ensembles continue to
favor upper ridge building across the Ohio Valley that would
support a more southward push.
An upper trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest Monday
and approach the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Long range ensembles
show a myriad of results for the depth of this wave and any
possible flattening of the ridging in place. Rain chances should
increase as the trough and surface low approach. Temperatures
are expected to be above average through most of the period,
with cooler temperatures on Sunday behind the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong WNW winds expected throughout the day in the wake of a
cold front, with strong cold advection and deep boundary layer,
and tight pressure gradient. VFR cigs may drop to MVFR with
scattered showers as an upper trough crosses over the course of
the afternoon before widespread MVFR stratocu develops this
evening.
Outlook...
Dry weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with building high
pressure before another round of precipitation and restriction
potential returns on Friday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 15, 3:27 PM EDT---------------
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