ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 15, 4:44 AM EDT421
FXUS61 KILN 150844
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
444 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough of low pressure will move through the area
today leading to clouds and a chance for showers. High pressure
building in at midweek will provide a period dry weather, Wednesday
and Thursday. Low pressure will move northeast through the Great
Lakes late this week, bringing a warm front north into the area
Friday followed by a cold front on Saturday. This will bring an
increased chance for precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A strong mid level short wave will dig southeast and swing across
the region today. Low level CAA will start bring in clouds from the
northwest this morning. Cyclonic flow associated with the mid level
trough, along with some diurnal instability, will bring some
isolated to scattered showers. The best coverage of showers looks to
occur generally north of Wilmington.
The pressure gradient tightens along with favorable mixing which will
lead to increasing winds - with sustained west winds of 15 to 25 and
gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
Cooler temperatures today with highs from the upper 40s north to the
lower and middle 50s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Main mid level short wave pulls away from the area with showers
ending late in the day. Additional energy will drop into the area
this evening into the overnight hours. Clouds will decrease but may
not clear out until the early morning hours Wednesday. Winds
decrease to around 8 to 10 mph overnight. Temperatures drop to lows
ranging from the lower 30s to the upper 30s. Due to potential for
clouds and wind - the formation of widespread frost should be
inhibited.
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into the
area Wednesday. Expect to see a good deal of sunshine with only few
to scattered cumulus clouds and some high level clouds spilling in
during the afternoon. High temperatures range from the lower 50s
north to the upper 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry conditions will be found across the Ohio Valley through Friday
as high pressure moves through the region. Temperatures moderate to
the upper 70s on Friday as winds shift southwest behind the exiting
high pressure. Mid and high level clouds increase on Thursday and
Friday with increased moisture in the warm air being pulled in ahead
of a cold front.
Friday night, a cold front passes southeast through the CWA and
stalls/stretches out in the vicinity of the Ohio River. Showers and
thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall rates will occur from
Friday night through Sunday, though the heavier rainfall rates are
expected to lighten up beginning Saturday night. This occurs as
high pressure builds to the northeast and a deepening low ejects ne
out of TX Sun night. Saturday and Sunday will see temperatures drop,
with Sunday highs ranging from the low 60s north, low 70s south.
By Monday, this stacked and energetic low will be located over MO
with its eastward extent reaching sw CWA. During the morning and
through the afternoon, warm frontal genesis occurs in the southern
CWA and moves n during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms, again
with moderate to heavy rainfall are expected on Monday and will
lighten as the front moves northward during the evening and
overnight. CWA remains warm sectored through Tuesday as the low is
located near srn LMich. Temperatures warm to the low-mid 70s on
Monday behind the warm front, then lower some on Tuesday as cooler
air wraps around the low under a thick cloud cover with scattered
shower activity prevailing.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
In the wake of a surface cold front wind have shifted to the west
and some mid level clouds continue. These clouds will scatter out
overnight and west-northwest winds will continue at 10 - 15kts.
A mid level shortwave will drop southeast across the area overnight
into Tuesday. Low level CAA will start to bring in a stratocumulus
deck in from the northwest late tonight. Expect these clouds to be
around 3500 feet and continue thru most of the day. Can not rule out
a period of MVFR ceilings today across the northern TAF sites but
duration is expected to be short. Pressure gradient tightens along
with favorable mixing which will lead to increasing winds - with
sustained west winds between 15 and 20 knots and gusts of 30-35 knots
at times.
Cyclonic flow associated with the mid level trough, along with some
diurnal instability, will bring some isolated to scattered showers to
locations across the north, particularly for KCMH and KLCK.
As the mid level trof begins to pull away Tuesday night the pressure
gradient will start to relax, and winds will begin to decrease.
Clouds will also scatter out late evening into the overnight hours.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible along with a chance of
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 15, 4:44 AM EDT---------------
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