PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 14, 9:24 PM EDT930
FXUS61 KPBZ 150124
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
924 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring the chance for showers and
isolated storms this evening, mainly south of Interstate 70.
Gusty winds and showers are possible on Tuesday, with snow
showers expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most light snow
accumulation will be in the mountains and north of Pittsburgh.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Storms quickly exit this evening.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Evening update...the severe threat has ended and the watch has
been cleared. An area of showers with isolated thunderstorms
will continue to move eastward over locations mainly south of
I-70 until the front crosses later this evening. Could see a few
showers developing further north right along the crossing
boundary, but moisture will be limited. Have updated overnight
PoPs and refreshed the temperatures as well. Rest of the
forecast is in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gusty winds on Tuesday with a Wind Advisory for east Tucker.
- Light snow forecast Tuesday night for some.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The more robust push of cold air advection behind tonight's
front will occur Tuesday morning. Along with colder
temperatures, this will force near-saturating and help
destabilize the low-levels aloft. With afternoon surface
heating and enhanced mixing, surface gusts may tap into an 850mb
jet of 40-60kts, bringing widespread gusts of 35-45 mph Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Gusts will peak in eastern Tucker county,
where gusts to 55 mph are expected; a Wind Advisory remains in
effect there Tuesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon.
Gusts across the rest of the ridges look to remain just below
advisory-level (46+ mph), with HREF probabilities higher on the
CTP side of the ridges. Still, will continue to evaluate the
possible need for Advisory expansion.
Moist and unstable conditions on Tuesday afternoon, coincident
with a mid-level shortwave passage, will aid widespread rain shower
development. Low freezing levels of 4-6 kft and sufficient lift
will also allow for small graupel/hail development with any
deeper showers.
With showers and continued cold advection, afternoon high
temperatures will top out below average in the 40s and 50s. As
temperatures fall Tuesday night, meager instability will be
maintained which may lead to snow development. Most ensembles
maintain at least a light coating in the I-80 corridor north of
Pittsburgh and high terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. As a worst case scenario, an inch or two is possible
in eastern Tucker and north of I-80, which may allow for a few
slick spots for the Wednesday morning commute. Ensembles
continue to highlight at least some accumulation in the northern
counties but also the ridges.
Surface high pressure will extend up the Mississippi Valley
Wednesday with ridge axis across the upper Midwest. Low pressure
continues to shift over the Northeast US and Quebec. This
continued tight pressure gradient will maintain gusty winds once
again across the ridges, maxing out over eastern Tucker County.
The Wind Advisory remains in effect through early Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gusty winds linger into Wednesday for high terrain.
- Forecast uncertainty grows next weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will keep the region dry for Thursday.
Temperatures will be around normal for this time of year as
highs are expected to cross 60 degrees across much of the area.
This day will also have the potential of low RH during the
afternoon. Uncertainty is maintained in the forecast beyond
Thursday with two clusters (65% of ensemble membership) tending
toward quasi- zonal flow, and another two clusters showing more
pronounced eastern troughing with embedded shortwaves, which
would tend a bit wetter and cooler (35% of ensemble membership).
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are expected. Wind will shift to the west with
sustain speeds around 5-10kts through the overnight hours. Wind will
be the primary impact Tuesday with a 80%-90% chance of sustained
speeds above 15 kts, maximum winds closer to 20 kts, at all airports.
Gusts could reach 35-40 knots, especially at hilltop airports like
AGC and HLG.
Scattered showers will be around Tuesday with coverage ramping up
during the daylight hours. A drop to MVFR CIGS as they pass during
the afternoon.
Outlook...
Dry weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with building high
pressure before another round of showers and storms (and
restrictions) on Friday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/Shallenberger
AVIATION...McMullen/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 14, 9:24 PM EDT---------------
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