MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 12:20 PM CDT ...New Aviation...235
FXUS64 KMOB 101720
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
An upper level shortwave trough digs south over the eastern Conus
through the latter part of the week. Several rounds of shortwave
energy move through the digging upper trough with a surface cold
front moving south across the forecast area late tonight in
response to the first round of passing energy. Guidance is
advertising precipitable h20 levels rising into the 1.0"-1.1"
range with the passing front. With upper support from the initial
round of passing energy remaining north of the forecast area, any
precipitation with the front is expected to be limited to areas
north of Highway 84. Guidance is advertising enough ingredients
(MLCapes rising to around 1000J/kg, DCapes rising to around
700J/kg, and Bulk Wind Shear around 50kts) for a few strong to
marginally severe storms to be possible, but limited upper support
will temper the risk. SPC has placed areas north of Highway 84 in
a Marginal Risk of severe storms in the latest outlook for
Thursday through Thursday night.
Ahead of the front, high temperatures are expected to top out in the
upper 70s to low 80s today. Behind the front, low 70s north of
Highway 84 to upper 70s near the coast are expected Friday. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 50s are expected over most of the
forecast area Thursday night. Friday night, low temperatures ranging
from the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to around 50 near the coast are
expected.
A low risk of rip currents is expected through the rest of the
week. /16
Generally dry forecast expected this weekend through at least the
middle of next week. High pressure builds into the region over
the weekend. A weakening cold front slides into the region next
Tuesday, but moisture return is meager ahead of the front. At this
point, we expect a wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures
with this front, but no rain. The area remains dry as high
pressure builds overhead on Wednesday. The next chance for any
appreciable rainfall will be late in the week as a shortwave dives
toward the region. 07/mb
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
A cold front approaching from the north moves through the area
overnight with light southwesterly winds switching to the
northwest. Isolated to scattered showers and storms with MVFR
conditions are possible over interior areas tonight, and IFR to
MVFR conditions are also possible with patchy late night fog
mainly over portions of south central Alabama and the interior
northwest Florida panhandle. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Light to moderate southwesterly flow today will shift to a moderate
to strong offshore Friday behind a cold front crossing area waters
later Thursday night into Friday morning. SCEC conditions are
likely, with an SC.Y possible over open Gulf waters. Winds remain
offshore into Saturday, shifting to onshore by the end of the
weekend as surface high pressure moves east over the northern Gulf
coast. Another front crossing area waters Tuesday will shift winds
back to offshore by the middle of next week. /16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 56 77 49 73 47 76 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 60 77 53 71 51 72 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 62 77 53 73 52 72 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 52 74 46 70 41 77 50 84 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 52 74 45 71 42 79 53 86 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 52 70 46 66 41 75 52 84 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 54 77 45 72 41 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 12:20 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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