CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 14, 3:45 PM EDT229
FXUS61 KCLE 141945
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
345 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east across southern Ontario and Quebec
tonight through Tuesday, pushing a cold front across the region
through this evening. A series of troughs will cross the area on
Tuesday. High pressure will build east across the region
Wednesday and Thursday before the next low pressure system crosses
the Great Lakes Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front is progressing east across the area and showers are
present on radar, but the lower levels are currently too dry for
anything to reach the surface. Will need to see significant
moistening for anything to reach the surface. Moisture will
likely increase in the eastern half of the area as the front
progresses east later this afternoon into this evening, but
forecast soundings still indicate quite a bit of dry air and a
somewhat strong cap through this evening. Have scaled PoPs down
further and cap at chance (30 to 50 percent) from Knox County,
OH to Erie County, PA and locations southeast between about 4 PM
and 8 PM. At this point, it looks like any convection would
develop right along the southeastern border of the CWA before
quickly exiting to the southeast or develop to the southeast of
the area. In fact, it's quite possible that the CWA doesn't
experience any precipitation at all. Despite the significant
amount of dry air and lack of instability, the wind field still
supports potential for gusty winds and perhaps some hail if any
convection manages to develop. To make a long story short, the
best severe weather risk will lie to the southeast of the local
area.
Dry weather is expected overnight, but it will be quite breezy,
chilly, and rainy on Tuesday. A vertically-stacked low will
meander across southern Ontario and into Quebec Tuesday morning
into the afternoon with a series of upper trough axes crossing
the CWA Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. Lake-enhanced
rain showers will develop Tuesday morning with the highest PoPs
across the snowbelt region of NE OH/NW PA. However, there will
be enough moisture/lift to warrant at least a chance of showers
areawide Tuesday morning and afternoon. Strong westerly winds
are expected during the day Tuesday with gusts to 30 to 40 mph
likely areawide. Isolated gusts to 45 mph are possible, mainly
west of I-77 and along the lakeshore in NE OH/NW PA.
Most of the precip should focus into the snowbelt for Tuesday
night and cold air advection will result in a transition to
snow. Snowfall rates may be efficient across interior NW PA and
the lack the high April sun could allow a few inches of snow to
accumulate in the far eastern fringes of Erie and Crawford
counties overnight. The current forecast has a swath of 2 to 4
inches in this area, although there's some potential for locally
higher amounts.
Tonight's lows will be in the lower 40s. Temperatures won't
increase much on Tuesday and expect highs in the 40s with temps
decreasing in the afternoon. Tuesday night's lows will be in the
low to mid 30s with upper 20s possible in the higher elevations
of interior NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Very end of the lake effect snow showers as high pressure builds
into the Great Lakes, forcing the exit of the low level moisture
over the northeastern zones. Minimal additional accumulations at
this point fighting sun angle and mid to upper 30s temperatures.
High pressure through Thursday with airmass modification through
clearing and ridging aloft moving in from the west. Warm front
Thursday night begins warm air advection for the area, but will be
associated with a weak embedded trough axis aloft, and a return to
POPs for the CWA, especially the northern half. Models continue to
push upper level disturbances through the now southwesterly flow
aloft, and thus the chances for convection will continue Friday in
the warm sector. This is all ahead of the cold front that will
likely be just northwest of the CWA by 00Z Saturday while the
surface low tracks northeastward, just west and then north of our
CWA. Not necessarily a high dewpoint airmass moving in, but should
still be in the upper 50s for the western zones, and do have an SPC
outlook for the western fringe of the CWA for day 5 for now, but
details yet to unfold here. Temperatures see a nice spike Friday,
and should see mid 60s east to mid 70s west.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front comes through late Friday night/Saturday morning as the
surface low moves swiftly northeastward towards northern New
England. As was the case in the short term, will need to see some
details before assessing a severe threat with this, but something to
definitely keep an eye on going forward. The airmass filtering in
behind the cold front will not be as chilly as the past few with the
wild temperature swings, but temperatures will get knocked back into
the 50s for Sunday as high pressure will have built into the Great
Lakes. Another low pressure system possible late Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will continue through early Tuesday morning. A cold front
will cross the area this afternoon into early this evening. A
few light showers cannot be ruled out for the first couple of
hours of the TAF period, but the lower levels are likely too dry
for any precipitation to reach the surface. Moisture may
increase a slightly at KCAK/KYNG/KERI between 20Z and 23Z, which
could result in scattered showers, but currently thinking the
best chance of precipitation will lie to the southeast of the
local area this evening. PROB30 groups for VFR conditions in
showers are included for these locations during this timeframe.
Overall thunder chances remain low.
An upper trough is expected to cross the area on Tuesday,
resulting in widespread lake-enhanced rain showers from about
12Z onwards. The best chance of showers will generally be from
KCLE to KCAK east with slightly lower rain chances at western
terminals. MVFR conditions (primarily ceilings) will develop
within a couple of hours of the onset and continue through the
end of the TAF period.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with rain, changing to snow, in NE
OH and NW PA on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Non-VFR
ceilings possible in NE OH/NW PA on Wednesday. Additional non-
VFR in rain Thursday night through Friday and possibly into
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory with winds on the increase out of the west at
15-25kts tonight and increasing to 25-35kts early Tuesday. The Gale
Watch continues for the western and central basins, and wave heights
for the central and eastern basins are going to push the 7-10ft
range. Winds become northwesterly 15-25kts for Tuesday night into
Wednesday and wave heights down to 4-7ft with the Small Craft
Advisory continuing for portions of the central and eastern basins
of Lake Erie. Winds finally decrease to below 10kts out of the
northwest Wednesday night with wave heights not below 4ft, and
becoming variable Thursday as high pressure moves into the Great
Lakes.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>147.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
LEZ142>147-162>167.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 14, 3:45 PM EDT---------------
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