CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 2:05 AM EDT616
FXUS61 KCLE 130605
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
205 AM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley tonight then drift
into the Mid Atlantic Sunday. This will allow a warm front to
lift across the region Sunday evening into Sunday night as
strengthening low pressure moves through the Upper Midwest. This
low will continue through the northern Great Lakes Monday, reaching
Quebec by late Tuesday. The low will drag a strong cold front
across the region Monday night followed by troughing lingering
Tuesday until high pressure finally returns by Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes planned for the overnight period as high pressure
remains near the region. The region is between low clouds to the
east and high clouds over the upper Great Lakes. Mostly clear
skies for the next few hours will allow temperatures to drop through
the 30s in mostly locations with patchy fog potentially
developing from CAK to YNG.
Previous discussion:
A quiet night is expected across the region as high pressure
builds over the area. Lingering low clouds over eastern Ohio and
nw PA will continue to decrease along with diurnal cumulus in
Ohio. Patchy fog is possible over inland northeast OH and PA
given the small difference between temps and dewpoints
presently. Isentropic lift from the west will spread some high
clouds into the region after midnight and help keep overnight
temperatures slightly warmer.
Previous discussion...
The latest visible satellite loops this afternoon finally show a
positive trend, as breaks in the overcast are seen developing
over Lake Erie and parts of northern Ohio/NW PA. This will
remain a slow process due to the abundant low-level moisture
that is trapped below the inversion as the high builds in from
the west, so lowered temperatures the rest of the afternoon in
NE Ohio and NW PA. However, expect skies to finally become
mostly clear by late evening into tonight as the old mid/upper
trough and associated closed low pivots through the Mid Atlantic
allowing the ridging at the surface and aloft to shift overhead.
This will eventually lead to the drier air winning out and
scouring out the low-level moisture. The clearing skies and
relatively light winds will lead to another unseasonably cold
night, with lows in the low to mid 30s (coldest in NE Ohio and
NW PA).
Sunday still looks like a much nicer day overall as the
mid/upper ridge axis remains across the Ohio Valley and Lower
Great Lakes and the surface high drifts into the Mid Atlantic.
This will set up a southerly return flow and resultant warm air
advection. Isentropic ascent ahead of a warm front could
generate a few scattered showers in NW Ohio Sunday afternoon
and evening, and HREF members suggest this spotty activity.
However, kept PoPs to mainly slight chance since low-levels will
be dry. The main impact will be increasing high and mid level
clouds, but even so, the warm air advection and mid April sun
will allow highs to warm into the mid/upper 50s. NW Ohio could
even touch the low 60s.
The better chances for showers will come Sunday night as the
warm front lifts across the region and interacts with the fringe
of mid-level jet support as a potent mid/upper trough swings
into the Upper Midwest. This will help to strengthen the warm
air advection and isentropic ascent along the front, so have
solid chance PoPs Sunday night. Lows will be milder, with
generally mid/upper 40s in NW and north central Ohio and low/mid
40s in NE Ohio and NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Looking at another upper level wave racing across the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. Surface high that will
bring us some pleasant weather on Sunday will migrate south over
southeast CONUS on Monday. This feature coupled with an approaching
associated surface low will create southwest flow from East Texas to
the Ohio Valley on Monday. Several mid-range models indicated
surface dewpoints increasing up to 55 to 60F across northern Ohio
and western PA between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. The upper level
low and surface low will become vertically stacked over the northern
parts of the Great Lakes Monday afternoon. At the surface, the warm
air will be displaced aloft over Michigan possibly creating a triple
point along the cold front and advancing warm front across northern
Indiana on Monday. As the cold front advances east moisture is
expected to pool along the boundary. Precipitable water values will
increase to up to 1.1 inches Monday afternoon and farther south will
have higher values and deeper moisture. Depending on the speed of
the front will have an opportunity to increase across the forecast
area and increase mid layer instability. At this time, the deepest
moisture will remain across the south half of Ohio with PWAT values
from 1.3 to 1.4 inches. However, a slower frontal passage will see
the threat of convection to develop across northern ohio and
interior northeast Ohio and longer duration of convection Monday
afternoon. Strong to severe weather is possible with the threat of
wind and hail but think the threat will be farther south on Monday.
The cold front will push through the forecast area Monday night. A
short-lived lull in weather impacts will occur Tuesday morning with
temps into the 40s. A secondary surge and potent shortwave will
cross the area midday Tuesday, increasing the threat of showers. A
more northerly component to the westerly flow yield more cloud cover
particularly across Northeast OH and Northwest PA. As a result,
temps will slightly increase to near 50.
Persistent northwest flow will yield cloud cover and scattered
rain/snow mix showers across northeast Ohio and northwest PA Tuesday
night. Limited accumulations is possible in the higher terrain of
the snowbelt, particularly in Erie County PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will finally build into the region through Wednesday
into Thursday. Lingering lake enhanced precip should end on
Wednesday. While the main trough lift east later in the week, a weak
northwest flow will keep thickness layers from rising too quickly
Wednesday and Thursday. Dry weather is expected midday Wednesday and
Thursday. The nose the ridge will finally approach western Ohio on
Friday and high temps will respond with 70s across northwest Ohio.
Warm air advection and possible warm front may the threat of
scattered showers late Friday. A cold front is expected to slowly
across the forecast area on Saturday, maintaining scattered showers
across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure has allowed for dry and mostly clear conditions
across the region early this morning. The first extension of a
warm front will enter NW OH later this morning with some mid-
level clouds and an isolated shower and have broken ceilings but
omitted the rain mention due to low confidence. Clouds will
spread across the area later this afternoon as the main warm
front approaches and some scattered rain showers should develop
for the evening hours and have a vicinity shower mention at all
terminals. For now, seems unlikely that these showers will bring
non-VFR conditions but it will be something that needs
monitoring. The front will clear the region from southwest to
northeast tonight and will be in NE OH/NW PA by the end of the
TAF period. Winds will be light to start and generally
southerly. Flow will increase a bit today with flow favoring
south to southeast with the frontal passage.
Outlook...Showers with some storms will bring non-VFR on Monday,
especially late afternoon and evening. Non-VFR expected with
rain, changing to snow, in NE OH and NW PA on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Non-VFR ceilings possible in NE OH/NW PA on
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high will shift south through the evening and light and
variable winds will become southerly by Sunday morning. Winds will
remain below 15kt through through Sunday night. A more southwest
flow is expected on Monday. Winds are expected to increase to 15 to
25 knots into Monday night with a cold frontal passage.
A secondary surge with a stronger push of cold air will push across
the lake midday Tuesday with westerly winds increasing increasing to
20 to 30 knots. Winds will become more northwesterly Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. Winds will diminish from west to east
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Waves of 2 to 4 feet will build
over the open waters east of the Islands on Monday, increasing to 3
to 6 feet and pushing into the nearshore waters Monday night. Waves
will increase to 4 to 7 feet west of the Islands and 6 to 10 feet
east of the Islands on Tuesday. Waves will remain elevated Tuesday
night before gradually diminishing from west to east Wednesday into
Wednesday night, falling below 4 feet across the entire lake by late
Wednesday evening. As a result, Small Craft Advisories are likely
for most marine zones Monday afternoon to Wednesday evening. Will
also need to monitor water levels on the west end Monday night into
Tuesday morning.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...FZ
LONG TERM...FZ
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...FZ
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 2:05 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
