MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 12:36 PM CDT ...New Aviation...811
FXUS64 KMOB 091736
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
An upper trof axis just to the east of the forecast area this
morning will move off into the western Atlantic through Thursday.
This will result in a northwesterly upper flow across the area
today through Thursday. A vigorous series of shortwaves traversing
the northern Plains will lead to a another large upper trof
reforming and digging east across the southeastern CONUS Thursday
night and Friday. A surface ridge shifts across the forecast area
today through Thursday, bringing dry conditions to the region.
The shortwave activity aloft Thursday night into Friday will
bring a re-enforcing cold front across our area during that time.
Deep layer moisture return ahead of this front will be limited,
but a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will be possible
with the passage of this feature, especially over northern
portions of our area (locations which are closer to the upper
dynamics lift). Best rain chances, while PoPs will generally be no
more than 20 percent, will be on Thursday night.
The large eastern states upper trof moves off into the western
Atlantic over the weekend with increasingly zonal flow aloft and
surface high pressure drifting east across the region. A northerly
surface flow prevails over the forecast area Friday into the
weekend, then a weak return flow is gradually established by early
next week as the surface high drifts to the east of the area and
another another cold front approaches from the northwest. This
next front looks to move weakly through the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, though at this point deep layer moisture looks to
remain too limited to consider pops. A low risk of rip currents is
expected through the weekend.
Temperatures this morning are remaining several degrees above what
was anticipated, mainly in the low to mid 40s over the northern
half of the forecast area, which is good news with regard to the
slight potential for frost that we have previously discussed
impacting new growth. Some areas will still likely fall into the
upper 30s by around sunrise, however. For the remainder of the
temperature forecast is somewhat of a roller-coaster (but not a
very big roller-coaster). Highs today should range from around 70
to the mid 70s, then be a little warmer on Thursday ahead of the
approaching front, ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Highs
will cool somewhat on Friday (low to mid 70s) and even more-so on
Saturday (upper 60s to lower 70s). Warming back into the 70s for
highs areawide on Sunday, and then mainly into the low to mid 80s
for most locations on Sunday (mid/upper 70s along the coast).
Overnight lows will vary somewhat as well, but mainly be in the
40s and 50s through the entire forecast period. DS/12
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
VFR conditions will prevail with a light northeasterly wind. Winds
will become light and variable tonight then southwesterly by
Thursday morning. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Light offshore flow tonight becomes a light and somewhat variable
flow by this afternoon. A light to moderate west to southwesterly
flow develops on Thursday as a weak cold front approaches from
the west and then becomes northwesterly by Friday morning in the
wake of the front. A moderate to occasionally strong offshore
develops by Friday night, with winds gradually subsiding going
into the weekend. Small craft should also exercise caution over
the open Gulf waters Friday night, and a brief Small Craft Advisory
may become necessary well offshore. Otherwise, no hazards to small
craft are expected through most of the remainder of the week. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 52 79 58 78 49 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 55 76 62 77 52 71 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 57 75 62 77 53 72 52 73 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 46 79 53 74 44 68 42 76 / 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 48 81 53 75 45 70 43 78 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 46 78 53 71 45 67 42 74 / 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 46 79 55 77 46 71 43 76 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 12:36 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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