IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 2:00 AM EDT224
FXUS63 KIWX 100600
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
200 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread light to moderate rain continues this evening and
overnight, with light snow across far northern areas along
the IN/MI state line into northwest OH.
- A gradual warming trend is expected through the remainder of
the week into the weekend, with temperatures returning back to
above normal by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
A broad area of rain (and perhaps a rain/snow mix for some areas)
will continue to expand in coverage and intensity through the late
afternoon and evening hours, courtesy of substantial isentropic lift
on the 290k surface ahead of a fast moving, shallow short wave
trough poised to track across the area overnight. As the isentropic
upglide weakens, strengthening PVA aloft will maintain precipitation
chances through the night as the trough axis translates eastward
across the CWA. In general, expect precipitation to primarily be
rain as thermal profiles appear quite marginal for snow, but cannot
entirely rule out a brief mix especially along the IN/MI state line
into northwest OH where temperatures may drop into the middle 30s
tonight. Any accumulations would likely be insignificant, with
perhaps a couple tenths of an inch possible on grassy or elevated
surfaces should a heavier snow shower move overhead. Rain chances
should decrease markedly by 09-12z Thursday on the back side of the
trough as a much drier air mass moves in, along with some larger
scale subsidence. There will be some potential for patchy fog around
this general time frame as gradients weaken given the recent
widespread precipitation and lowering inversions, but at this time
do not expect widespread dense fog. In general, expect Thursday to
be mainly dry but did maintain some low-end (~15%) PoPs as some
light instability driven showers cannot be entirely ruled out. The
best chance for anything measureable should remain along/south of US-
24. A gradual warming trend can be expected through the weekend as
upper-level ridging builds back into the region, with widespread 60s
returning by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
A weak and very moist flow in the lower levels was helping to
keep low clouds over northern Indiana. An area of rain (with
snow near and north of the Indiana border) was moving east.
Outside of the area of precipitation, visibilities were mainly
VFR. High resolution models were very favorable for IFR clouds
filling in rapidly overnight, albeit a bit too fast according
to the latest SFC obs. There is a strong model signal that the
IFR ceilings are not going to be able to scatter out of lift, so
kept these IFR conditions through the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hammer
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 2:00 AM EDT---------------
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