CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 7:57 PM EDT ...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...207
FXUS61 KCLE 102357
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
757 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
A low drifts northeastward along a stationary front from northeast Ohio
to western New York late this afternoon through daybreak Friday.
This low track will allow the trailing cold front to sweep
eastward across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through
the predawn hours of Friday morning. The low is then expected
to be absorbed by a separate and strengthening low expected to
move northeastward from the Carolinas to Atlantic waters near
New England on Friday through this Sunday. Behind the
aforementioned cold front, a ridge builds very slowly from the
northern Great Lakes through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
730 PM update...
The main weather concern that we are watching this evening is
the potential for low very stratus building down to the ground
or near it tonight. Right now we are expecting patchy to areas
of fog or light misty conditions. There maybe some patchy dense
fog but confidence of widespread dense fog is low at this time.
We will keep an eye on trends through the late evening.
Previous discussion....
A longwave trough aloft persists over the Lake Erie region and
Upper OH Valley through daybreak Saturday as the trough axis
moves from near northern Lake Huron and the Lower OH Valley to
near Lake Ontario and the Carolinas. At the surface, a low
drifts NE'ward from NE OH to western NY through daybreak Friday
as the low moves along a stationary front. This low track will
allow the trailing cold front to continue to sweep E'ward across
NE OH and NW PA through the predawn hours of Friday morning.
Behind the low and cold front, a ridge builds very slowly from
the northern Great Lakes through daybreak Saturday. In addition,
the aforementioned low will become absorbed by a separate
surface low that will develop NE'ward from the Carolinas to
Atlantic waters south of Long Island and deepen downstream of
the longwave trough axis on Friday through daybreak Saturday.
The above-mentioned weather pattern at the surface and aloft
will allow net low-level CAA to impact northern OH and NW PA
through daybreak Saturday. This CAA regime will contribute to
overnight lows in the 30's to near 40F around daybreak Friday
and Saturday, respectively. During late Friday afternoon, highs
are expected to reach only the lower to mid 40's in NW PA to
north-central OH. In NW OH, more-frequent cloud breaks should
permit greater daytime warming and allow highs to reach the mid
40's to lower 50's.
Isolated to scattered and light rain showers, associated with
low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front, are
expected to end from west to east across NE OH and NW PA through
the predawn hours of Friday morning. Separate scattered to
widespread rain showers, associated with the low pressure
system's warm conveyor belt undergoing moist isentropic ascent
aloft, are expected to end gradually from west to east tonight
through sunset Friday evening, over/near central and eastern
Lake Erie, as the warm conveyor belt weakens in response to the
aforementioned evolution of the surface low. These rain showers
may become lake-enhanced, albeit slightly, over/south of
central and eastern Lake Erie late this evening through daybreak
Friday as the seeder-feeder process occurs amidst a
sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column, the
development of very weak lake-induced CAPE, and a N'erly mean
low-level flow over/downwind of the ~7C lake. The lake-enhanced
precip may impact north-central OH, NE OH, and NW PA. Rain may
mix with wet snow at times overnight tonight as the atmospheric
column cools via CAA, the wet-bulb effect, and limited nocturnal
cooling. Once precip ends, fair weather is expected through
daybreak Saturday as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the
aforementioned ridge. Additional rainfall is expected to be
0.20" or less and any snow accumulations are expected to be a
trace.
Note: Nocturnal cooling amidst abundant low-level moisture from
precip and relatively-weak surface winds may allow stratus to
expand downward this evening through daybreak Friday and create
areas of fog. Any fog is then expected to dissipate by late
Friday morning, following the onset of diurnal convective mixing
of the boundary layer. Future shifts will have to monitor trends
in obs and newer model guidance for the potential need for a Fog
Advisory.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A low drifts northeastward along a stationary front from northeast Ohio
to western New York late this afternoon through daybreak Friday.
This low track will allow the trailing cold front to sweep
eastward across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through
the predawn hours of Friday morning. Behind the low and front, a
ridge builds very slowly from the northern Great Lakes through
daybreak Sunday. In addition, the aforementioned low will become
absorbed by a strengthening and separate low expected to move
northeastward from the Carolinas to Atlantic waters southeast of
Nantucket on Friday through daybreak Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast starts off warm on Monday with southwesterly
flow ahead of a cold front. A fast moving upper level low will
approach the Great Lakes with low pressure at the surface near Lake
Superior on Monday. The associated cold front will move into NW Ohio
Monday afternoon and quickly move east through early evening.
Dewpoints start off dry ahead of this system but models show
increasing chances for rain as overrunning ramps up through the
first half of the day followed by showers along the front during the
afternoon and evening. There have been some solutions that suggest
instability may struggle to get north of Central Ohio and place
slightly higher chances of precipitation there. Will continue with
chance pops given uncertainty in coverage in placement for Monday
with high temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
An abrupt cool down follows for the mid-week period as the trough
deepens across the Great Lakes and New England. Cold advection
continues all the way through Tuesday night with 850mb temperatures
potentially as low as -8C to -10C in NW Pennsylvania by Wednesday
morning. Have unfortunately trended temperatures down and will have
a chance of snow showers in the far east Tuesday night through
Wednesday. While temperatures are expected to trend warmer by
Thursday, the northwest flow pattern does look active through the
end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The main aviation weather message and concern for this TAF
update will be the widespread very low stratus LIFR/IFR
ceilings tonight into Friday morning. There is the potential for
very low stratus building down to the ground or near it. Areas
if light fog and misty conditions will keep visibilities down
to 1sm to 3sm. There maybe some patchy dense fog but confidence
of widespread dense fog is low at this time. And we will keep an
eye on trends through through the late evening. Visibilities
will gradually improve between 12z and 16z Friday morning.
Ceilings will also improve late Friday morning into the
afternoon. Most locations will have ceilings lifting to the
VFR/MVFR range by Friday afternoon or towards the end of this
TAF period. Winds will be generally be from the north 5 to 12
knots with some gusts up to 20 knots coming back after 17z
Friday.
Outlook...Isolated rain showers with non-VFR possible Friday
afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Scattered rain showers
with non-VFR possible this Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorms possible Monday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure is located across Northeast Ohio and will move to
eastern Lake Erie tonight. Northerly winds will increase to 15-20
knots on the back side of the trough across the central basin of
Lake Erie. Given the fairly compact nature of the trough and cold
advection on the back side, Small Craft conditions are likely to
develop tonight. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from the Islands
to Geneva-on-the-Lake through 4 AM. Choppy conditions will continue
for much of Friday but with wave heights dropping back into the 2 to
4 foot range.
The trough will shift east Friday night into Saturday with high
pressure building east into the Central Great Lakes Region. High
pressure with light winds and low waves are expected Sunday before
south to southwest winds ramp up on Monday. Low pressure is expected
to track through the Upper Great Lakes, pulling a cold front east
across Lake Erie Monday evening. This will be the next window of
elevated winds and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
Monday night into Tuesday night. A little early to know how strong
winds will be behind the front but initial estimates are westerly at
20-25 knots. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast for early next
week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...77/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 7:57 PM EDT ...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...---------------
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