BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 6, 7:35 PM EDT136
FXUS61 KBOX 062335
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
735 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier this afternoon as a cold front moves south of New England. The
front stalls to our south tonight into Monday as low pressure tracks
along it, bringing more rain mixing with snow late tonight into
Monday morning, with minor wet snow accumulations over the higher
elevations. Then a strong cold front passage late Monday night will
be followed by blustery and chilly conditions Tuesday into
Wednesday. Warming up, but turning cloudy and damp again for
Thursday and Friday. Continued wet and unsettled weather heading
into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Period of rain tonight into Monday morning with snow over higher
elevations and portions of the interior. Minor snow accumulations
possible above 1,000 ft.
We'll enjoy a brief break in the wet weather this evening as the
cold front stalls to our south. A renewed push of moisture arrives
overnight, though, associated with a surface low riding along that
front. This together with synoptic scale forcing for ascent
associated with placement beneath the RRQ of an upper jet will cause
precipitation to redevelop after midnight and continue into Monday.
Given the PWAT plum maximized (1+") offshore to the south with
values near 0.5" in northern MA, expecting the greatest QPF for
southern zones. Initially, flow in the lowest levels of the
atmosphere will be cold out of the NE keeping temps subfreezing,
while magnitude of a 700 mb warm nose shown yesterday is much less,
lessening the chance of sleet vs snow. So, expect light snow for a
time as far south as PVD to BOS, but accumulation is not expected
below 1,000 ft. Expecting the widespread precip to become more
widely scattered during the afternoon on Monday as moisture shifts
east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* A strong cold front moves through overnight bringing a renewed
round of rain and high elevation snow.
A strong cold front moves through from west to east after midnight
Monday. Out ahead of and along the front we'll see a resurgence in
shower coverage, once again in the form of snow for the interior.
Again, not expecting more than a coating to a half inch in the high
elevations. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, while some
scattered snow squalls may accompany the front, limited instability
due to the timing overnight will limit the strength and any impact,
lessening even moreso as it moves into central and eastern SNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A strong Cold front will bring blustery, cold, and dry conditions
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Warmer, but wet, Thursday and Friday with the arrival of a warm
front.
* Wet and unsettled weather continues into next weekend, but details
remain uncertain this far out.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
A few rain/snow showers linger Tuesday morning, but the arrival of a
strong cold front will help push out any remaining precip by Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Post-FROPA CAA will bring another round of chilly
air from Ontario... deterministic and ensemble guidance suggesting
850mb temps around -12C/-13C... severely hampering Tuesday's temps.
NBM probs have a few bullseyes along the south shore of ~60 percent
chance of reaching 45F, but < 50 percent everywhere else. Overnight
lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be quite chilly, in
the low to mid-20s. WNW winds and diurnal heating will promote
mixing up to, if not above, the 800mb level, where winds will be
around 40-50mph. With super adiabatic lapse rates near the surface,
would not be surprised to see gusts of 35450mph frequently reach the
surface during the day Tuesday, especially over the waters and
Islands. Dry and sunny conditions expected both days as high
pressure builds in.
Thursday and Friday.
Winds turn southerly on Thursday as the high moves out over the
waters. An approaching warm front and surface low over the Great
Lakes will help temps rebound into the low 50s, but cloudy and wet
conditions return. The best chance for precip looks to be Thursday
night and Friday as better forcing arrives from the shortwave and a
reinforcing warm front.
Saturday and Sunday.
Ensemble guidance remains in surprisingly good agreement for the
weekend. Looking to see a low develop over the SE US and push up the
coast Saturday and exiting over Nova Scotia on Sunday. This would
bring continued wet and unsettled weather to the region for next
week. However, with this system being a week out, details remain
uncertain as the pattern could easily change between now and then.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z update...
Tonight through Monday night...Moderate confidence.
VFR becoming MVFR late tonight into Monday morning, possibly
IFR near the south coast as rain redevelops with snow in the higher
elevations. Rain mixing with and changing to snow in the
interior through 12z. Rain- snow- sleet mix possible for BOS
and PVD by 12z. Likely snow transitioning back to rain by
14Z. Improving conditions Mon afternoon. Minor snow accum
confined to mainly higher elevations. Rain-snow returns for
higher elevations Monday night with rain elsewhere.
BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Possibility marine fog creeps in and conditions go LIFR with NE
wind Monday.
BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
* SCA in effect into Mon night.
* Gale Watch in effect Tuesday.
Through Monday night...High confidence.
Tonight winds switch to NE and increase toward sunrise. Seas
remain 2- 5 ft. RA overspreads after midnight and becomes widely
scattered Monday afternoon, then increasing again Monday night.
Seas 2-5 ft.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
ANZ231>233-235-237-250-251-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/McMinn
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...McMinn
AVIATION...BW/McMinn
MARINE...BW/McMinn
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 6, 7:35 PM EDT----------------
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