ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 2:53 AM EDT015
FXUS61 KILN 100653
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
253 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the middle Mississippi River Valley will slowly
move across the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday. This will bring
warmer temperatures and increased chances of precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will follow to close the work week before a ridge of
high pressure offers a warm up heading into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface low continues to track across the Midwest tonight. Warm front
gradually lifts northward overnight through our fa. Given the WAA
regime and increased cloud coverage, temperatures will remain fairly
steady overnight. Coverage in the rain will be lower to start the
night, and thermal profiles would suggest that a few snowflakes or
ice pellets could mix in. Eventually, saturation is lost in the
lowest part of the DGZ, removing chances for any frozen pcpn. With a
LLJ building over the region tonight, rain coverage and intensity
will increase between midnight and 6AM. This could result in
additional QPF amounts of 0.25" - 0.5".
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure will arrive into the region on Thursday.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will lift temperatures into the
upper 50s to middle 60s by afternoon. There could be a few showers
and storms develop in the warm sector across our southern counties
for the afternoon due to the arrival of modest instability. Late in
the day, a sagging cold front will bring colder air into the CWA from
north to south. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 30s to lower
40s in the cold air advection behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep mid level trough over the region at the beginning of the period
will develop into a closed low over the Appalachians. This will then
translate eastward early next week. As that occurs, mid level
ridging will move across the area on Sunday. Next short wave will
move into the Great Lakes on Monday with a trailing short wave
tracking into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
At the surface, a low will move from the southern Appalachians into
the Tidewater, becoming rather expansive over time. This will keep
clouds across eastern counties with less cloud cover further west.
Where this gradient in cloud cover sets up is still a bit of a
question. This will affect the potential for frost Friday night as
temperatures fall into the 30s. High pressure will finally build in
over the weekend allowing skies to clear areawide, with more
potential for frost Saturday night.
As the high moves off to the east and a cold front approaches, the
pressure gradient will tighten on Monday allowing for some gusty
winds. There will be showers and possibly some thunder as the front
moves through Monday afternoon and evening. Some additional showers
will be possible on Tuesday with a secondary front.
Cool temperatures to start the period, but there will be a warming
trend with readings near normal on Sunday and above normal on
Monday. But then temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread rain rain showers associated with a mid level shortwave
will pivot thru the area this morning. The rain will fall initially
from a VFR cloud deck with some MVFR vsby reductions possible this
morning. CIGs still likely drop to MVFR toward sunrise which are
expected to continue into the afternoon as the surface low tracks
through the area. A cold front eventually moves through during the
afternoon, resulting in a wind shift from to the northwest. Some
thunderstorms will be possible this evening but with the best
coverage expected south of the TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are again
expected late tonight into Friday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs likely Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 2:53 AM EDT---------------
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