ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 7:53 PM EDT213
FXUS61 KILN 092353
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the middle Mississippi River Valley will slowly
move across the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday. This will bring
warmer temperatures and increased chances of precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will follow to close the work week before a ridge of
high pressure offers a warm up heading into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A southwesterly low level jet will provide impetus for isentropic
lift tonight. This will combine with a warm front draped across the
Ohio Valley to bring rain through the early morning hours. Lows will
generally remain in the 40s tonight due to thick clouds and
precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure will arrive into the region on Thursday.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will lift temperatures into the
upper 50s to middle 60s by afternoon. There could be a few showers
and storms develop in the warm sector across our southern counties
for the afternoon due to the arrival of modest instability. Late in
the day, a sagging cold front will bring colder air into the CWA from
north to south. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 30s to lower
40s in the cold air advection behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep mid level trough over the region at the beginning of the period
will develop into a closed low over the Appalachians. This will then
translate eastward early next week. As that occurs, mid level
ridging will move across the area on Sunday. Next short wave will
move into the Great Lakes on Monday with a trailing short wave
tracking into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
At the surface, a low will move from the southern Appalachians into
the Tidewater, becoming rather expansive over time. This will keep
clouds across eastern counties with less cloud cover further west.
Where this gradient in cloud cover sets up is still a bit of a
question. This will affect the potential for frost Friday night as
temperatures fall into the 30s. High pressure will finally build in
over the weekend allowing skies to clear areawide, with more
potential for frost Saturday night.
As the high moves off to the east and a cold front approaches, the
pressure gradient will tighten on Monday allowing for some gusty
winds. There will be showers and possibly some thunder as the front
moves through Monday afternoon and evening. Some additional showers
will be possible on Tuesday with a secondary front.
Cool temperatures to start the period, but there will be a warming
trend with readings near normal on Sunday and above normal on
Monday. But then temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periods of rain will continue into the overnight hours. Some IP may
mix in during the first few hours of the taf period before converting
to all rain. Rain will be light and intermittent to start the taf
period, but there should be an increase in coverage during the middle
of the night. Some MVFR vsby reductions possible with the rainfall.
CIGs still likely drop to MVFR, but this is trending later in the
night. MVFR CIGs expected to continue into tomorrow as the surface
low tracks through the area. Cold front eventually moves through
Thursday afternoon, resulting in a wind shift from the SSE to NW.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday evening. MVFR CIGs
likely Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 7:53 PM EDT---------------
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