BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 5, 1:24 AM EDT817
FXUS61 KBOX 050524
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
124 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather this weekend, with a chilly rain developing
Saturday afternoon from west to east, followed by more showery
weather Sunday morning, as a cold front moves into the region.
This cold front stalls south of New England Sunday night, with
low pressure tracking along it, bringing more rain and cool
conditions Sunday night into early Monday, possibly changing to
snow, especially at the higher elevations. Then a drying trend
likely Tue, Wed and Thu next week, but unseasonably cool. More
unsettled weather is possible late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Updated 1:25 AM
Saturday...
Key Messages...
* Dry much of Saturday morning, then a chilly rain Saturday
afternoon and becoming breezy late
Low pressure emerging out of the OH Valley will spread its WAA rain
shield across SNE, mainly Saturday afternoon. Lots of mid level dry
air over SNE should keep the morning hours of Saturday mainly dry,
before column saturates in the afternoon with rain becoming
widespread.
Impacts...main impacts, a raw/chilly rain Saturday afternoon, with
low wet bulb temps (925 mb temps 0C to +2C) resulting in temps
falling through the 40s and eventually into the mid and upper 30s,
as rain commences. A modest low level southerly jet will result in
SE winds increasing to 15-25 mph late in the day, yielding a wind
swept rain. Hence, not a very spring-like day. Heavy rain not
expected, but a persistent light to moderate rain for the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Updated 1:25 AM
Saturday night and Sunday...
Key Messages...
* Unsettled weather continues with periods of rain Sat night
followed by showers Sunday.
* A period of dry weather & partial clearing possible late Sunday
afternoon/evening and not as cool as Saturday
Saturday night, warm front moves across the area and will be
accompanied by periods of rain and drizzle, along with areas of fog.
Low risk (about 10% chance) of an isolated thunderstorm given some
instability aloft, on the nose of the dry slot, steepening mid level
lapse rates. Strong moisture advection along the south coast with
PWATs climbing to 1.5 inches. Hence, some heavy downpours possible,
especially if elevated convection fires. Some uncertainty how far
north warm front tracks, so true warm sector airmass may remain
along the south coast or into southeast MA. Temps should rise from
the 30s early Sat evening, into the 40s overnight and possibly near
50 along the south coast into southeast MA, in response to warm
sector.
Sunday, a cold front sweeps across the area and will be accompanied
by showers. Low risk (10% chance) of an isolated thunderstorm along
and ahead of the front in the morning. Some of the guidance suggest
the front moving offshore Sunday afternoon, with some drying
overspreading the area Sunday afternoon with the wind shift from SW
to WNW. Although, best chance for a drying trend along with any
partial clearing Sunday afternoon would be inland, with clouds and
showers lingering the longest along the south coast.
Impacts...nothing significant, a few heavy downpours possible Sat
night into early Sunday morning, if elevated convection fires.
Greatest risk along/near the south coast. Areas of dense fog too
along and ahead of the warm frontal boundary.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Occasional showers Sunday into Tuesday, with some snow possible
higher elevations late Sunday night into early Monday
* Cooler and unsettled conditions persist into early next week
Fairly stagnant mid level pattern through this weekend into early
next week, featuring a broad ridge over the Caribbean and a mid
level cutoff over Hudson Bay. This pattern slowly shifts east early
next week, but maintains its relative positioning between these two
synoptic features. By the middle of next week, projections have
southern New England more beneath a mid level trough. From there, it
shifts to a more zonal flow towards late next week.
The impact of this will be a lingering front with a few weak low
pressures traversing it staying rather close to our region Sunday
into Tuesday. By Wednesday, we start to get more influence from a
high pressure over the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. This
high pressure should move offshore Thursday, clearing the way for a
low pressure to approach from the Great Lakes Friday. Given the
inherent timing uncertainties usually associate with zonal flow
patterns at this time range, would not be surprised if this timing
changes with later forecasts.
Looking unsettled with periods of showers, especially for Monday
towards southeastern MA. Temperatures should be high enough for
plain rain for most. There is a possibility for some light wintry
precipitation Sunday night into Monday. This time of year, should
not amount to much of an impact given the relatively weaker forcing,
especially during the daylight hours. Something to monitor with
later forecasts.
Temperatures still expected to be a bit of a roller coaster over the
coming week. Above normal temperatures Sunday should transition to
below normal early next week before returning to above normal values
late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z update...
Saturday...Moderate confidence.
Cigs lowering to MVFR in the afternoon and evening, as rain
overspreads the region from W to E. Light E wind becoming SE 10-15
kt. Marginal LLWS possible after 20z, WS020/16040KT
Saturday Night...Moderate confidence.
Cigs come down to IFR by or shortly after 00z in continued scattered
rain showers. A few rumbled of thunder are possible, highest
probability at south coast terminals overnight. Winds SE 5-10 kts
become W/SW by 12z. Marginal LLWS possible until 03z or so, with
WS020/20040KT.
Sunday...moderate confidence, so uncertainty on how quickly cold
front exits the area.
BOS TAF...High confidence thru this morning, then some slightly
uncertainty on exact timing of rain and MVFR cigs. Marginal LLWS
late Saturday and Sat evening.
BDL TAF...High confidence thru this morning, then some slightly
uncertainty on exact timing of rain and MVFR cigs. Marginal LLWS
late Saturday and Sat evening.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night through Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
1:25 AM update...
* SCA in effect late Sat into Sat night.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
High pressure moves from Quebec to the maritimes providing
dry/tranquil marine weather into Saturday morning. Then rain
overspreads the waters Saturday afternoon, along with SE winds
increasing to 15-20 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible from
approximately 20z-04z. Then Saturday night, warm sector enters the
MA/RI waters, with SE winds becoming SW late as warm front lifts
northward. Sunday, winds shift from SW to WNW with frontal passage.
Rain and fog early, then vsby improving with the wind shift.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain
showers.
Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Sunday for ANZ232>235.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
Monday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Nocera
MARINE...Belk/Nocera
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 5, 1:24 AM EDT----------------
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