PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 7:01 AM EDT130
FXUS61 KPBZ 081101
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
701 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder today with scattered morning snow showers.
Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through the week with
more wet weather expected Thursday and through the first half of
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Isolated to scattered lake enhanced snow showers will trend
down through the morning hours.
- Temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below normal.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Strong cold advection in northwest flow has aided isolated to
scattered lake enhanced snow showers this morning. Warm surfaces
and waning snowfall rates are ensuring only grass and elevated
surfaces see a coating of snow, mitigating most risks.
Slowly rising heights aloft and high pressure nudging in from
the west will work to erode snow showers through the early
afternoon and clear area stratocumulus through this evening. The
combination of the cold airmass in place some daytime cloud
cover is expected to result in daytime temperature that is
around 20 degrees below the daily average; if KPIT only reaches
38 degrees as forecasted, it will tie the 5th lowest maximum
temperature for the calendar date. Additionally, deep mixing and
a residual surface gradient will foster 20 to 30mph afternoon
winds that will keep wind chills winter-like (20s to lower 30s).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below normal temperatures Wednesday.
- Precipitation returns late Wednesday through Thursday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Broad surface high pressure will maintain dry conditions
through Wednesday before rain returns ahead of an approaching
low late in the day. The mentioned low center is progged to
then pass north of the region on Thursday. Warm advection in
southerly flow will moderate temperatures. While rainfall
amounts of over a half inch are currently unlikely (less than
20%), higher elevations could see closer to that amount due to
upslope flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below-average temperatures expected through Saturday
- Precipitation ends Saturday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long-range ensemble models remain consistent, showing a cool
pattern through Saturday. A large-scale trough over our region
will likely keep afternoon highs below 60 degrees, with less
than a 25% chance of exceeding that, during this time period.
There's a possibility of continued precipitation Friday into
Saturday if this noted trough stalls as indicated by a few long-
range ensemble models.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold advection in northwest flow will allow for isolated to
scattered snow showers through 15z today, though increasing
subsidence should lessen snowfall rates and limit shower
abilities to reduce cig/vsbys.
High pressure building in from the west and slowly rising
heights aloft are expected to end light snow showers by 18z and
work to erode lingering stratocu (and some diurnal induced cu)
west to east through 00z. Deep mixing and the residual surface
gradient may support NW wind gusts between 20 to 30kts through
23z before sharply declining during the overnight period.
Outlook...
The next low pressure system arrives late Wednesday into
Thursday and is likely to initiate another prolonged period of
restrictions and occasional precipitation chances as deep Great
Lake troughing develops.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/22/88
LONG TERM...Hefferan/88
AVIATION...Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 7:01 AM EDT---------------
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