ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 3:39 AM EDT486
FXUS61 KILN 090739
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow returns to the region and we experience a slight
warming pattern. Additionally, rain is reintroduced to the forecast
Wednesday afternoon and a series of disturbances keep us unsettled
through the end of the work week. Dry weather returns for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure, calm conditions, and widespread frost start our day.
The high will quickly be shunted east as a series of shortwaves
approach in the mid level flow. The surface feature for the first of
these moves into the area Wednesday afternoon, with mid and upper
level clouds building in Wednesday late morning and precipitation
arriving by late afternoon via isentropic lift. No real instability
to speak of, so kept initial round of rain as stratiform. Daytime
highs in the upper 40s (north of I-70) to upper 50s (along Ohio
River).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The feature continues to move through the region, beginning to open
up so the area enters into a weak warm sector. Congruent with this,
a narrow wedge of instability works into the Tri-State, so some
overnight rumbles of thunder are possible. Overnight lows fall to
the low to mid 40s and this first round of rainfall moves east by
late Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, a secondary disturbance works through the mid level flow
aloft, reinforcing and digging into the primary shortwave. At the
surface, this allows for the warm sector to intensity over the
region and temperatures rise in the upper 50s/low 60s while dew
points rise to the upper 40s/low 50s during the day on Thursday.
While these numbers are not overly impressive, temperatures aloft
remain quite cold, so some steep lapse rates will be present. As the
secondary surface system moves east, storms will likely fire off
Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may have a low
end potential for strong winds and hail, particularly near the Tr-
State. However, overall vertical shear profile is pretty meager, so
cells will likely be disorganized.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For Thursday night, showers and few thunderstorms will shift
southeast as surface low pressure and a cold front move in that
direction as well. Lows will range from the mid 30s northwest to the
upper 30s/lower 40s elsewhere.
On Friday, large scale mid level trough will be carving itself out
across the eastern United States, including the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. In the CAA pattern behind the cold front, it will be mainly
cloudy and chilly. There will be a chance of showers, mainly over
the eastern two thirds CWFA as pieces of mid level s/wv energy keep
rippling through the overall trough. Highs will range from the mid
40s to the lower 50s.
For Friday night into Saturday, the mid level trough will be slow to
translate east as it develops a closed center of circulation over
the mid Atlantic. Clouds will be slow to move, circulating around
cyclonic flow. However, enough clearing is forecast for about the
western third of the CWFA, while considerable cloudiness lingers
across the remainder of the area. Thus, some frost may be possible
Friday night where skies partially or mostly clear out. It will
still be cool on Saturday. Lows will range from the lower 30s
northwest to the upper 30s east. Highs will range form the lower 50s
east to the mid 50s west.
For Saturday night into Sunday, stubborn mid level trough will
finally move east, allowing high pressure at the surface and aloft
to build in. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be favorable
for some frost formation Saturday night into Sunday morning (lows
mainly in the mid 30s). Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will
allow temperatures to moderate into the 60s.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be quick to exit east
Sunday night into Monday, allowing the next mid level trough and
cold front to move into the region. There will be a chance of
showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, on Monday. After lows in the
40s, highs will boost into the 70s on increasing southerly flow
ahead of the cold front.
Cooler, drier air will arrive by Tuesday, along with some breezy
conditions. After lows in the upper 40s to the lower 50s, highs will
range from the lower 60s northwest to near 70 southeast.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure sits over the Ohio Valley at the start of the
TAF period and surface winds are light and variable to calm. SKC at
all sites.
High cloud blowoff from our west creeps in Wednesday around sunrise
and we'll have a VFR BKN deck ahead of the next weather maker. Winds
also increase, becoming southerly around 10 knots on Wednesday.
Rain overspreads the region from west to east after 21Z with episodic
showers moving through as we head into the overnight. Not much
instability to speak of, so no thunder in the TAFs. MVFR and some IFR CIGs
arrive near the end of the TAF period and work in from west to east.
Winds continue out of the south/southeast, at 10 knots or less.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible early Thursday. MVFR CIGs are
possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 3:39 AM EDT---------------
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