LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 5, 6:31 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...443
FXUS64 KLIX 052331
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
631 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025
Low clouds across most of the area have scattered out this
afternoon and strong surface heating has taken place. Just off the
deck, 925mph winds have been right around 40kts or so. With this
heating, some of those strong winds have been able to mix to the
surface and as such we issued a short fused wind advisory through
00z. After sunset it will still be breezy, but the stronger gusts
will be done.
Outside of the windy conditions, looking up stream we are still
watching the stalled front that is forecast to move toward our
region early Sunday morning. A highly amplified broad scale
trough over the Four Corners region will finally boot the front
away from the Mid South and Ohio River Valley. Some very welcome
news for them and send this front toward the Tennessee Valley
southward to the Gulf Coast. Timing remains about the same from
the previous package updates. A line of convection should begin to
enter our western tier roughly around 1am or so and gradually
move eastward with time. Instability will be there roughly around
1000 J/KG give or take. Shear will certainly be there as it has
been quite a dynamic storm system. SRH values around 200-250 m2s2
seem to at least offer some risk of rotating updrafts with both
hail and a tornadoes possible. As stated, it's a very dynamic
heavy system so strong damaging wind gusts along the line will be
the primary concern. Models slow the front down as it moves
through our CWFA and briefly aligns with the mean upper flow
pattern. This is until another H5 impulse amplifies within the
main broader trough and eventually kicks the front down stream
Sunday Night or early Monday. Behind the front there could be
lingering showers and storms on Sunday and Sunday Night especially
east of the I55 corridor closer to the front. Overall, rainfall
amounts should remain in the 1 to 2 inch range mostly, however,
with the stalling front and PWATS more than 1.7" or certainly in
the 90th percentile for this time of year, localized flash
flooding cannot be ruled out in those favored lower spots or
urbanized areas. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025
By Monday the front finally slides eastward into western Florida.
Any lingering shower activity will also exit in that direction. On
the backside northwest winds will increase and strong CAA takes
shape. Monday, after several days of, in some cases, record
breaking temperatures will feel like winter as our region will
roughly be 20-25 degrees cold for MaxTs and over 30 degrees colder
overnight. Aloft, dry northwesterly flow will develop and surface
high pressure moves into the region by Wednesday shutting down
winds for a bit. As the surface high meanders each day we will
warm slightly warmer than the previous through the workweek. By
Thursday eyes shift again north as a Canadian trough begins to
amplify over the eastern half of the country. A surface low and
front will move southward through the end of the week and pass
through our region sometime on Friday. With little surface return
flow or poor moisture return, this frontal passage will likely
remain dry with very limited POPs currently expected. This front
and parent trough appear to be somewhat robust as the front makes
it through the Gulf and even into the Caribbean, something we
typically only see during the absolute coldest periods. That said,
guidance is only modestly cooling. We'll need to watch day 7
temps through the week as right now they are likely a bit too
warm, so we will let guidance have some time to catch up. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025
VFR to MVFR conditions will continue for a few hours more before
dropping to IFR or lower late tonight. Gusty winds linger a bit
longer but should begin to drop off in the next few hours. The
bigger concern will be a line of storms is forecasted to move
through the area late tonight into tomorrow morning which will
drop both visibilities and ceilings for all terminals moving from
the west towards the east. There is some potential for the storms
to stall at some point overnight so not forecasting much
improvement during this forecast cycle.
-BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025
Ongoing hazardous marine conditions for the local waters.
Southerly flow will begin to transition to a more northwesterly
flow with some brief improvement in winds as the front moves
through. Behind the front, winds and seas will again build back to
SCA thresholds. Made some minor adjustments to the Small Craft
Advisory and extended for the Gulf waters through early Monday.
Conditions will gradually improve from this point, especially as
we head into midweek where high pressure will begin to spread into
the region from the north and west. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 74 48 61 / 90 80 20 10
BTR 65 72 50 63 / 90 60 20 10
ASD 70 79 53 67 / 70 90 60 20
MSY 70 77 55 65 / 70 90 60 20
GPT 70 78 53 65 / 50 90 80 40
PQL 71 81 55 68 / 30 90 90 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-
066>070-076-078-080-082-084.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ570-572-575-
577.
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
MSZ086>088.
GM... Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538-
550-552-555-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 5, 6:31 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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