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914 FXUS64 KLIX 040859AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA359 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025Not only a warm and breezy day yesterday across the area, butcurrently an exceptionally warm and humid night for early April.Even at 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the area are mainly in the mid and upper 70s with dew points in the lower and middle 70s. A couple locations, McComb (76) and New Orleans International Airport (77), tied their records for warmest low temperatures for the month of April yesterday. Upper ridging remains situated between Bermuda and the Bahamasthis morning, with a deep upper trough extending from south-central Canada to Arizona. At the surface, a frontal boundaryextended from near Pittsburgh to Memphis to the Texas Big Bendregion. As the next shortwave moves through the base of the upper troughover the next 24 hours, it will actually pull the northern end ofthe frontal boundary to our west westward, while the southern endcreeps eastward. By Saturday morning, the boundary will be near aCleveland-Paducah-Brownsville line. This will keep the pressuregradient fairly tight over the next 24 hours, but perhaps not tothe extent of the last 2 days. Cannot rule out a few rain showersentirely today across western areas. The southern end of the trough to the west will see the shortwavelift northeastward through Texas and Oklahoma Saturday andSaturday night. Scattered showers and storms will be possible bylate afternoon Saturday, but the main concern for thunderstorms,some of which are expected to be strong to severe, will beovernight Saturday night, especially after midnight. Precipitablewater values just ahead of the front will be approaching 1.9inches, which is pretty much the top of the chart for early April.Instability and shear will certainly be sufficient for severeweather, but perhaps not quite as extreme as the last coupleevents locally. The greatest (Enhanced Risk, or 3 of 5) threat appears to be generally to the west of Interstate 55 Saturdaynight, but can't be entirely discounted anywhere in our CWA.With the extremely moist airmass in place Saturday night, veryheavy rain will certainly be possible. Convection is expected tobe fairly progressive across our area, fortunately, but areascould pick up a quick 2 inches, locally higher. If that occurs over an urban area over a short time, that could produce brief flooding issues. Extremely warm temperatures are expected to continue until thefront passes, with record temperatures remaining in danger. Lowtemperatures Saturday night will be extremely dependent on wherethe frontal boundary is at sunrise Sunday, with 70s to the east ofthe boundary, and 60s or even upper 50s to the west of theboundary. Will continue the Coastal Flood Advisory through the high tidecycles today and Saturday. At present, looks like about a foot orso above normal. &&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025Showers and storms could linger over at least the eastern half ofthe area Sunday, mainly in the morning. A few severe storms remain possible Sunday morning east of Interstate 55. A muchcooler airmass will overspread the area late Sunday and Monday,with high temperatures mainly in the 60s behind the front.Overnight lows will feel downright chilly compared to the currentweather behind the front for Monday morning through Wednesdaymorning. Low temperatures approaching 40 will be possible in someof the normally cooler spots Tuesday and Wednesday morning.Temperatures will gradually moderate to near to above normal bythe end of next week, with little or no precipitation once theSunday frontal passage departs the area. &&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025Primarily MVFR ceilings this morning, although KGPT remains at IFRlevels. Similar to the last couple days, MVFR conditions duringthe morning may improve to VFR, at least temporarily, during thelate morning and afternoon hours at most terminals as breaks develop in the cloud cover. Most likely to remain at MVFR or IFRwould be KASD and KGPT. All terminals likely to lower again toMVFR to IFR after sunset. Brief SHRA will be possible, especiallyat KBTR and KMCB, but thunder doesn't appear to be a major threatfor the current package. Wind speeds will again increase during the daytime hours withgusts to 25 to 30 knots likely at most terminals, before relaxingsome after sunset. &&.MARINE...Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025Currently looks like hazardous conditions will continue through atleast Saturday night with the strong onshore flow continuing. TheSmall Craft Advisory will probably need to be extended throughSaturday night later today, and perhaps into Sunday, as seas willlikely need some time to subside. Could see some gusts to galeforce over the far western waters on Saturday, but not confidentenough to justify a Gale Watch/Warning quite yet. Behind thefrontal passage, could need some Exercise Caution headlines forportions of the waters Sunday into Tuesday. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 86 72 85 66 / 30 10 60 90 BTR 88 75 88 66 / 20 0 50 90 ASD 85 74 85 70 / 10 10 30 80 MSY 86 75 86 71 / 10 0 20 80 GPT 80 72 80 69 / 10 10 30 60 PQL 82 71 83 69 / 10 0 30 50 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058- 066>070-076-078-080-082-084.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ086>088.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...RWLONG TERM....RWAVIATION...RW MARINE...RW
