BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 30, 2:05 PM EDT401
FXUS61 KBOX 301805
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
205 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly temperatures with areas of drizzle and fog will persist
today. A warm front will cross the region late tonight or Monday
morning bringing much milder temperatures by Monday afternoon along
with a few more showers. A cold front will bring showers along with
the risk of downpours and a rumble or two of thunder late
Monday/Monday night. Dry weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday with
temperatures trending cooler. Milder temperatures return Thursday
and Friday with perhaps a round of showers Thursday and/or Thursday
night. Temperatures probably trend cooler by next weekend with
perhaps some more rain by later Saturday and/or Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM Update...
The Winter Weather Advisory for the higher terrain in northern
and western Massachusetts has been cancelled as temperatures
have started rising. Some showers may be possible there for the
next hour or two, but the threat for ice accretion has ended.
Light showers that may not be reaching the ground are moving
across parts of western MA and tracking to the NE, and the
showers over NE MA have since moved offshore. A cooler than
normal day ahead with highs across southern New England in the
upper 30s and low 40s.
Previous discussion...
Key Messages:
* Raw afternoon with cooler than normal temperatures, no rain, but
areas of light drizzle expected with fog at times.
Yesterday's backdoor cold front has moved well to the south and is
located near southern New Jersey. As you can imagine, with constant
northeast flow, temperatures have settled in the low 30s north of
the Mass Pike and area south are still in the mid and upper 30s. As
a result we are still concerned with pockets of freezing rain and
drizzle across higher terrain (areas AOA 1,000 feet) of northern and
western Massachusetts. Temperatures gradually improve this morning
but may take until mid to late morning before the threat of freezing
rain comes to an end. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
until 11 AM. If you'd like to report any ice accumulation please do
so at www.inws.ncep.noaa.gov/report/
The rest of today is mostly free of any rain, but continue to expect
areas of light drizzle across much of the region due to the amount
of moisture trapped in the lowest part of the atmosphere. The raw
feel will continue as we anticipate the colder air will linger and
be difficult to scour out, much of the region only recovers to the
upper 30s and low 40s. The southern Connecticut River Valley, areas
mainly south of Windsor Locks, CT have the potential to reach the
upper 40s to potentially 50F in the southern Hartford County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Widely scattered rain tonight as a warm frontal passage.
* Mild for Monday with continued areas of light drizzle and fog.
Tonight: WAA as the aforementioned front moves north, but this time
as a warm front. In addition to continued drizzle and areas of fog
some widely scatter showers are possible. Not concerned with mixed
P-Types as there is a non-diurnal temperature trend, by midnight the
region is above freezing, and by sunrise the south coast is largely
in the upper 40s to 50F, while areas north of the Mass Pike are
still in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Monday: Robust southwest flow allows the warm front to race north,
allowing temperatures to rebound between 60F to 65F, though the
coast is cooler due to the flow off the cooler sea surface. The
south coast of RI and MA, Cape Cod, the islands, and potentially
Cape Ann are between 50F-55F. Forecast soundings continue to show
saturation in the lower part of the atmosphere, similar to the past
couple of days, thus expecting low clouds, drizzle, and area of fog
to continue. A few warm advection showers are possible too, but not
expecting a washout, that comes late Monday with the passage of a
strong cold front and is further discussed in the long term section
of the AFD. In addition, 925mb jet has wind speeds ranging
between 45 to 55 knots, even with the strong inversion should be
able to mix half of that down, leading to a gusts potential of
20 to 30 mph, from the southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages....
* Widespread showers Mon night with downpours & few rumbles of
thunder possible too
* Dry weather follows for Tue with highs of 50+ for many locations
* Dry but turning chillier Tue night into Wed with lows in the 20s
to around 30 and highs on Wed mainly in the 40s
* Much milder Thu & Fri with highs mainly in the 60s with the risk
for some showers mainly Thu/Thu night...but not a washout
* Turning a bit cooler next weekend along with the risk for some
rain sometime later Sat and/or Sun
Details...
Monday night...
An approaching cold front will result in the development of a 50-60
knot southerly LLJ as it approaches the region Mon evening and even
a bit stronger towards the Cape and Islands. In addition...Pwats
will climb to between 1.25 and 1.50 inches and there also is some
elevated instability depicted by the guidance. Putting this all
together with the strong forcing along the front...we expect
widespread showers with downpours and potentially a few rumbles of
thunder too. Think many places may see 0.50 to 1" of rain with even
some localized higher amounts possible. Gusty southerly winds of 25
to 40 mph are also anticipated towards the southeast New England
coast as the core of the LLJ will be impacting that region.
Tuesday...
Any lingering showers across the Cape/Islands will exit that region
by early-mid morning as the cold front clears the region. A much
drier and cooler airmass aloft will begin to make its way into the
region. However...given the mild start at the surface and the early
April sunshine expect highs to reach or exceed 50 in many locations.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...
A 1035+ Canadian high pressure system will usher in chillier than
normal airmass for early April standards. While it will remain
dry...lows Tue night will bottom out in the 20s to around 30. Highs
on Wed should mainly be in the 40s...perhaps flirting with 50 in the
lower CT River Valley.
Thursday and Friday...
High pressure moves off the coast by Thu as low pressure tracks
across Quebec. This will allow a southwest flow of much milder air
to work into southern New England. Highs will probably into the 60s
for many locations. We may have to contend with some showers
associated from a warm front and eventually an approaching cold
front sometime Thu into Thu night...but not expecting a washout.
Thinking right now is that the cold front will have cleared the
southern New England coast by early Fri. So perhaps a few lingering
showers early Fri...but thinking mainly dry weather. Despite some
cooling temps aloft behind the front...given the mild start and
northwest flow think we see highs in the 60s again.
Next Weekend...
Still quite the ways out but high pressure initially in control
looks to move east of the region as another low pressure system
approaches from the west. Confidence in this time range is low...but
appears some rain will be possible sometime later Sat and/or Sun.
Onshore flow will likely result in somewhat cooler temps than what
we are expecting for Thu and Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
Today...High Confidence.
Low end MVFR-IFR with localized LIFR conditions in
low clouds along with areas of drizzle this afternoon. Ceilings
trend back into IFR toward the evening. E/ENE winds 8-14 kts.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence - Fog potential
IFR to LIFR conditions in low clouds along with areas of
drizzle and fog tonight with a few showers.ORH will see periods
of FG overnight, with potential for pockets of FG elsewhere.
Included for ORH, but not the other terminals as confidence is
still low on the best timeframe for seeing the FG. Light E winds
will gradually shift to the SSW after 06z. LLWS will also be a
concern given the strengthening southerly LLJ in the 06-15z
timeframe for most terminals. This will likely linger across the
Cape/Islands through Monday.
Monday...High Confidence.
Low end MVFR-IFR conditions dominate with some localized LIFR
early Monday morning. There will also be some scattered showers
too. SSW wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots developing with perhaps a
few gusts up to 35 knots. LLWS across the Cape/Islands through
the day with the LLJ lingering..
BOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
BDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance RA, areas FG.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. RA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
* Gale Watch issued for all waters beginning Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.
Today and Tonight: High Confidence.
East/northeast wind today with gust less than 20 knots. A warm front
lifts north tonight and shifts wind to the southwest before dawn on
Monday with a few gusts nearing 25 knots across the southern waters.
Seas today are generally 2 to 4 feet across all waters, building to
near 5 feet across the southern waters by daybreak. Continued low
clouds and area of drizzle with poor visibilities.
Monday: High Confidence.
Strengthening southwesterly wind nearing gale force early Monday
afternoon, a Gale Watch has been issued from 2 PM Monday through 5
AM Tuesday. Large seas building to 6 and 8 feet across the outer
ocean waters, near shore waters 4 to 6 feet.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt.
Areas of rough seas. Areas fog, chance of rain. Areas of
visibility 1 nm or less.
Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, chance of
thunderstorms, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.
Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt.
Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley/Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch
MARINE...Frank/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 30, 2:05 PM EDT----------------
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