ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 1:37 AM EDT715
FXUS61 KILN 130537
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
137 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue into Thursday. A front will bring
the chance for thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday along
with slightly cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday. A
very warm airmass will bring several days of temperatures above
90 degrees to the region beginning on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Some passing cirrus clouds tonight will go largely unnoticed. A
light south wind and the high cloud cover would suggest mid 50s
in the southeast to low 60s in the northwest. Light southerly
winds will be in place overnight. Do not expect any valley fog
to be present given a continued dry airmass and forecast
dewpoint depressions greater than what was forecast this time
last night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The warming trend continues into Thursday with southerly winds
allowing for high temperatures in the upper 80s for most
locations. Precipitation is expected to hold off until Thursday
night with an approaching cold front. The cold front will move
through Thursday night into Friday allowing for some shower and
thunderstorm activity. With cloud cover Thursday night lows will
only drop into the 60s. High temperatures on Friday will
generally be in the low to middle 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night will likely be the coolest and driest period in the
extended in terms of air temperatures and overall surface moisture
(dewpoints). Surface high pressure building south into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley in the wake of the cold front will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
Continued dry weather is expected on Saturday with low level
easterly flow around surface high pressure. With abundant sunshine,
temperatures will rebound nicely into the lower to mid 80s.
The surface high will move east Saturday night, with skies remaining
mostly clear. Lows will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
On Sunday, as has been advertised, an anomalous mid level ridge is
forecast to build northward into the Ohio Valley. And with the
surface high to the east, low level flow will become more southerly,
allowing an increase in low level humidity. It will remain dry with
highs peaking mainly in the lower 90s. Some mid 90s heat indices
will be possible along and south of the Ohio River.
For the remainder of the extended, Sunday night into Wednesday,
confidence in above normal temperatures is high given the signal of
a strong anomalous mid level ridge expected from the Ohio Valley
into the mid Atlantic/New England. Where exactly the center of this
high sets up is still in question. A ECMWF solution centered more
over the Ohio Valley would bring hotter surface temperatures and
perhaps more mixing/slightly lower dewpoints during peak heating,
along with a low chance of a pop up afternoon/evening shower/storm.
A GFS solution where the center of the mid level ridge is farther
east, would suggest slightly higher surface dewpoints, but slightly
lower air temperatures and perhaps a little bit more of a chance of
showers/storms/clouds if our area sees weak disturbances rotating
around the periphery of the mid level ridge. All in all, it looks to
be hot and humid next week. For now, Monday looks the warmest (highs
in the mid 90s), but lower to mid 90s will likely linger into mid to
late week next week, with the potential for higher surface
temperatures to occur if the ECMWF comes to fruition. Lows will be
very warm, mainly in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cannot completely rule out a brief temporary visibility
restriction a KLUK during the early part of the period. Beyond
that VFR will prevail area wide. There will just be some mid and
high clouds passing across the region. Light southerly winds
will increase during the day but not exceed 10 kt and then
diminish again after 00Z.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 1:37 AM EDT---------------
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