JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 4, 2:05 AM EDT133
FXUS63 KJKL 040605
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
205 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will affect
eastern Kentucky through Sunday.
- Warm temperatures will last through Saturday, followed by much
colder air arriving to start the new week.
- Frost and/or freezing temperatures are forecast for most places
Monday night and Tuesday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 205 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2025
A line of convection is settling back to southeast early this
morning as a eastward translating speed max in the low-level warm
conveyor belt jet brings an impressive surge of 925-850 mb
moisture transport into Central and Eastern Kentucky through the
remainder of the nighttime hours. Accordingly, the latest hi-res
guidance is favoring another round of soaking rainfall northwest
of an imaginary line from Somerset-to-Jackson-to-Inez through
late morning on Friday. Limited instability will hopefully keep
the full potential of this moisture surge from being realized;
however, it is possible for rainfall amounts between midnight and
noon Friday to approach 4.0 inches in some spots if persistent
training of the more intense convective elements occur over a
given location. In general though, anticipate a widespread 0.5 to
1.5 inches northwest of the aforementioned line during that time
period. Also notable is the temperature gradient across the area
early this morning -- 51F at the Fleming Mason Airport and 79F at
the Harlan Airport -- indicative of the strong baroclinicity in
play.
UPDATE Issued at 1015 PM EDT THU APR 3 2025
Mid level warming has capped deep convection for the time being,
and precip and the severe weather threat have ended. Some models
bring precip back in from the northwest overnight, and the
updated forecast contains a POP gradient to reflect this.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT THU APR 3 2025
Cold front appears to have made it just to the western edge/just
to the west of our CWA. Bulk of precipitation this afternoon
continues to remain along/just to the south/east of this boundary.
Continued rounds of showers and storms are possible this afternoon
and evening as the frontal boundary continues to sag south into
the area, and eventually stalls somewhere just south of the Ohio
River later this evening/tonight. The threat of severe continues
this afternoon/evening, with the possibility for strong damaging
wind gusts, and even isolated tornadoes, with the strong deep
layer shear and instability remaining in place, with breaks in
cloud cover helping to aid in instability. SPC continues to
highlight the bulk of the CWA in a slight risk for today. In
addition, strong southerly flow will continue to pump anomalously
high PW content air into the CWA, and the threat for flooding
continues, with heavy downpours, and a quick inch or two of qpf
possible at times in stronger storms.
Frontal boundary should generally remain stalled across the area
through early Friday, but should start to lift back north of the
area later in the day/evening as upper trough/low across the
southwest U.S. deepens. Heavy showers and storms are possible
early Friday, particularly in vicinity of the front, as waves move
along it, enhancing precipitation at times. At this point it
appears as though the axis of heaviest rain will occur across
northern zones/vicinity of Ohio River, and flooding concerns are
becoming increasingly likely in those areas. Frontal boundary
will also mark quite a temperature gradient across the CWA, with
areas north of the front much cooler, than areas south on Friday.
Southern zones could see high temperatures Friday in the lower to
mid 80s, with lower to mid 70s expected across the north.
As the front lifts back north in the evening Friday, the bulk of
precipitation should lift northward with it. However, showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible Friday, with the bulk
of severe activity generally remaining across the north, closer to
the front. However, severe cannot be completely ruled out anywhere
during this period, and an isolated strong storm is possible with
plenty of instability and 40 to 50 kts of shear in place.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT THU APR 3 2025
Frontal boundary should continue to remain just north and west of
the area at the start of the period. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will continue to enhance showers and storms, but
the bulk of the precipitation should remain out of our area for
much of the day. However, in the moist unstable airmass, expect
more convective activity, particularly during heating hours
south/east of the front. SPC has already placed much of the CWA in
a slight risk for severe on Saturday, with plenty of shear and
instability continuing to remain in place.
Front will finally sweep across the area in the Saturday
night/evening through Sunday time frame as the upper low to the
west opens into a wave, and finally starts to kick off to the
east. Plenty of low level moisture will linger across the area on
Monday behind the departing system, making for a cool day, with
high temperatures generally only in the 50s. More showers are
expected Monday evening into Tuesday, as an upper shortwave trough
moves through the area. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cool
air into the CWA, with low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings bottoming out in the 20s to 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2025
Conditions vary greatly across the area early this morning, from
VFR to IFR and worse. This mix will persist through midday, with
the worst conditions being most prevalent over the northwest
portion of the forecast area, and the best in the southeast. The
greatest probability for showers and thunderstorms is also over
the northwest counties through late morning. Improvement is
expected during the day Friday, with prevailing conditions
gradually returning to VFR area-wide. Won't rule out showers or
thunderstorms with briefly worse conditions even on Friday
afternoon, but the probability is much lower.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-112-114.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...RLX
LONG TERM...RLX
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 4, 2:05 AM EDT---------------
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