IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 31, 6:34 AM EDT805
FXUS63 KIND 311034
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
634 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much colder today with some sprinkles possible.
- Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
- Damp pattern continues through Sunday with chances for heavy rains
resulting in flooding, particularly across southern central Indiana.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Today...
Cold advection will continue across central Indiana today behind the
exiting cold front. The cold advection plus lingering moisture will
keep skies mostly cloudy to cloudy for much of the day. Some larger
breaks in the clouds may appear late this afternoon north.
An upper level wave will move across the area today, and a surface
trough will linger as well. There will be some weak lift from these
features, but it may not be enough to produce any measurable rain.
Will put some sprinkles in the forecast for much of the day, but
will end them in the afternoon as the clouds begin to break up.
Clouds and cold advection will keep temperatures in the 40s for
highs.
Tonight...
As surface high pressure builds in overnight, clouds will clear.
Winds will diminish as well. These conditions will lead to a cold
night, with lows generally at or below freezing (upper 20s north to
near freezing south).
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
After a dry and near normal temperature start to the long term
period, an active pattern will then set up over the region from
midweek through at least the weekend.
A low pressure system will arrive midweek, tracking from the
central Plains up to the upper Great Lakes, with showers and
thunderstoms reaching western Indiana as early as the early
morning hours Wednesday. The associated warm front is expected to
move through during the morning, placing central Indiana within the
warm, moist sector for much of the day, advecting in dew points in
the 60s and high temperatures in the 70s. The associated cold front
will then pass through central Indiana sometime late Wednesday night
through the day Thursday, and then stalling over the Ohio Valley.
Models still vary widely on the timing of the frontal passage as
well as its exact orientation and where it will stall. This will
greatly impact how much rain we will see this week but still, there
is mid to high confidence in a flooding threat for portions of
Indiana, especially southern Indiana - the question is whether that
includes our southern counties. As of now, guidance is indcating
rainfall amounts across the forecast area through sunrise Thursday
to range from 1.5" in our NW up to around 3" across our south.
Thursday and beyond could see multiple more inches of rain through
the week and weekend.
In addition to the flooding threat, Wednesday will also see the
potential for severe weather. Again, models lack good agreement so
details are limited for now, but could see another afternoon to
early overnight event. There will be ample warmth and moisture
advecting out of the Gulf with models showing at least adequate
values for instability and shear. At this time, all severe hazards
are on the table but there could also be gusty non-thunderstorm
winds of up to around 40 mph to deal with Wednesday.
Temperatures will be above normal from Wednesday to the end of the
work week, before dropping back down to normal.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Impacts:
- Wind gusts around 20kt today
- Generally MVFR ceilings expected through the afternoon
Discussion:
MVFR ceilings are expected through this afternoon. Clouds will
break up this evening, leaving VFR conditions.
Winds will be around 290 degrees early in the period, gradually
veering to around 360 degrees by 00Z. Gusty winds today will
diminish by this evening.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 31, 6:34 AM EDT---------------
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