CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 31, 6:30 AM EDT041
FXUS61 KCLE 311030
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
630 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit to the east this morning as low pressure
tracks northeast across Lower Michigan to Quebec. High pressure will
build east across the Great Lakes region tonight through Tuesday.
Another low pressure system will enter the Upper Midwest mid-week
lifting a warm front north across the local area on Wednesday before
dragging a cold front east on Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6:30 AM Update...
Cold front is roughly halfway across the local forecast area
early this morning. Some light rain showers have developed along
the cold front and will move east through late this morning.
Should be dry behind the front for the remainder of the day. No
major changes were made with this update as the forecast
remains on track.
Previous discussion...
Cold front is beginning to track east across northern Ohio early
this morning with some light rain showers persisting out ahead of
it. We should dry out by late this morning/early afternoon as the
front pushes east and a ridge of high pressure builds from the west.
Temperatures will be dropping for the most part during the day today
with highs in the mid 50s to low 50s likely being achieved near
daybreak. Cold tonight as flow turns northerly and overnight lows
dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Cooler and dry on Tuesday as high pressure settles overhead.
Afternoon highs generally rise into the mid to upper 40s with upper
30s to lower 40s downwind of Lake Erie. Given the northerly flow
across Lake Erie, expect for lake effect cloud cover to persist
through Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move eastward towards southern Quebec Tuesday
evening and continue to dominate our weather pattern through most of
the overnight. Our winds will shift from the east by Tuesday evening
and may increase 10 to 20 mph due to a pressure gradient with a
strong low pressure system developing across the Central CONUS and
Midwest. Temperature will be coolest Tuesday evening followed by a
slow climb during the late night hours. By early Wednesday morning,
a strong warm front will surge northward across the area in response
to a strong low pressure that will track through the Upper Midwest
during the day. The 850mb level flow will be cranking Wednesday
morning up to 65+ knots which will quickly advect in warmth and
moisture with the warm front. Morning and midday rain showers will
be likely with the warm front lifting through. A couple isolated,
elevated thunderstorms may also be possible with the warm front.
Model guidance indicates between 200 and 400 J/kg of MUCAPE may
develop and help in the develop of isolated convection. That initial
round of rain will move out during the afternoon hours. Considerable
cloudiness will likely continue for the rest of the afternoon but
strong warm advection in the low levels will cause temperatures to
reach the middle 60s to lower 70s during the late afternoon.
The spring-like warmth Wednesday afternoon will be the energy for
our next round of possible severe weather and thunderstorms. Low
pressure will track through the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday night. A
trailing cold front will move into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region late Wednesday afternoon and knocking on our NWOH area
Wednesday evening. Model guidance show that this cold front will
slowly move through Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Strong to severe storms will be possible with the greatest potential
across NWOH. SPC has most of NWOH in an enhanced risk with a level 3
out of 5 for severe weather. The rest of the area is in a slight
risk or level 2 out of 5 threat for the severe storm potential. All
modes of severe weather will be possible. There will be very strong
effective shear of 60 to 80 knots and hodographs look adequate for
rotating updrafts. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated
tornado threat will be the severe hazards Wednesday evening. The
convection will slowly weaken as it moves into NEOH and NWPA later
in the night as the atmospheric dynamics and less CAPE further
eastward. Due to this frontal boundary slowing down as it tracks
through, there is the potential for heavy rainfall. The average
guidance for QPF Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
indicates rainfall totals will be 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts possible. The heaviest rainfall axis may be over NWOH into
central Ohio with this particular round.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the front will stall out
near central Ohio on Thursday. We will continue with likely POPs
Thursday into Thursday night for most of the area with the highest
POPs closer to central Ohio. The stalled out front basically
becomes parallel with the mid level flow Thursday into the
overnight. Another weak disturbance will ride along that frontal
boundary and help develop more rounds of showers and potential
convection with a heavy rainfall threat. The greater threat may be
south of our CWA in southern and central Ohio but close enough to be
mindful of.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We will still be dealing with cloud cover and chances for scattered
rain showers on Friday north of the stalled front that will be
located near the Ohio River. A light northerly flow will make for a
temperature gradient across the area Friday afternoon. Closer to the
lake, temps will be stuck in the lower to mid 50s. Milder temps will
be further south into our central Ohio area with lower 60s for
Friday's high. The stalled front will hang out nearby or south of
our area through Sunday morning with multiple rounds of rainfall
possible. Rainfall totals may add up from the mid week through the
weekend to cause some flooding and hydro concerns on our local
rivers. The weather pattern will change in a big way by next weekend
into early next week. A very large and deep upper level trough will
dig from the Hudson Bay region into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Sunday into Monday. We will see a big cool down as this upper level
trough drops in right over our region. Temperatures will be colder
with chances for rain and snow showers Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR ceilings have dropped to MVFR as the cold front continues to
push east across terminals this morning. Some light rain along
the cold front may briefly bring visibilities to MVFR and
ceilings to IFR for the next few hours. Have opted to include a
brief TEMPO group until ~14-15Z at most TAF sites. Generally
MVFR ceilings between 1.5-2.5 kft will persist through the TAF
period with VFR returning to western terminals late in the TAF
period as high pressure builds overhead.
Winds have shifted westerly behind the cold front this morning
and have increased to 12-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Winds
shift northwesterly around daybreak today and will remain
elevated. By tonight, northerly winds will decrease to 5-10
knots as the aforementioned high builds overhead.
Outlook...Non-VFR in multiple waves of showers Wednesday
through Friday. Another round of thunderstorms is possible on
Wednesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Post frontal west to northwesterly winds 10 to 20 knots are expected
today with a gradual decrease to 10 to 15 knots by this evening. A
marginal Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the central and
eastern nearshore waters this morning and ending later this
afternoon. High pressure building down from Ontario and Quebec will
keep northerly winds 10 to 15 knots Monday night through Tuesday.
Winds will shift from the east by Tuesday evening and increase 15 t0
to 20 knots Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Another round of
Small Craft Advisories will be likely late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. THE SCA conditions will likely continue through
Wednesday as a strong warm front lifts northward followed by gusty
southerly winds 15 to 25 knots. A cold front will track across Lake
ERie Wednesday evening and overnight with a shift to southwesterly
winds 10 to 20 knots. Strong to severe storms will be very possible
Wednesday evening, especially over the western basin of Lake ERie.
Winds will become light and somewhat variable or northerly 5 to 10
knots Thursday and Friday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 31, 6:30 AM EDT---------------
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