Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #95 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE515
AWUS01 KWNH 301540
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-301938-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1138 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Far Southern MS...Southwest AL...Far Western FL
Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 301538Z - 301938Z
SUMMARY...Relatively slow-moving and occasionally backbuilding
areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms will pose a
localized threat of flash flooding going through the early to
mid-afternoon hours.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a cluster of
cooling convective cloud tops associated with heavy showers and
thunderstorms across portions of far southern MS and stretching
eastward into southwest LA and the western parts of the FL
Panhandle. The convection which has become rather organized over
the last hour is mainly associated with a low-level convergence
axis with proximity of a well-defined instability gradient.
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches
are in place across the area which are contributing to rainfall
rates reaching upwards of 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells.
Some localized backbuilding of these cells are noted and
especially over parts of Harrison and Jackson Counties in southern
MS. However, stronger convective cells are also slowly evolving
into areas of southwest AL as well. Given the cooling cloud top
trends, there should tend to be some persistence of these cells
over the few hours, and there will be concerns for additional
backbuilding and/or training of cells in the near-term given the
deeper layer mean flow.
The 12Z HREF guidance including some of the recent HRRR guidance
suggests as much as an additional 3 to 4 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts. Given ongoing convective trends and
additional rainfall potential in the near-term, additional
localized areas of flash flooding will be possible and this will
include a threat for some urban impacts rather close to the
Mobile, AL area, and especially areas north and west of here over
the next couple of hours.
Orrison
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 31378778 31258683 30788654 30458694 30358760
30368842 30698898 31138872
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #95 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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