ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 29, 7:57 PM EDT646
FXUS61 KILN 292357
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
757 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the weekend
before a brief cool down develops early in the workweek. Showers and
storms are expected at times through Sunday night before drier
conditions return for Monday and Tuesday. Some of the storms may be
strong to severe Sunday night. A more active weather pattern returns
once again by midweek and beyond, with a favorable setup for multiple
rounds of showers and storms through the second half of the
workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid level ridge axis shifts east with flow backing more
southwesterly as main trof is carved out in the Central Plains.
Embedded shortwave over evident on water vapor imagery over the Lower
MS Valley to dampen out and weaken as it tracks northeast across the
Ohio Valley overnight. Rain shower chances increase across the west
after sunset and pcpn coverage becomes widespread as this region of
forcing shifts east across the area. Cannot completely rule out an
embedded thunderstorm, but this would be isolated. Generally expect
rainfall thru Sunday morning to be one quarter of an inch or less.
Warm temperatures tonight with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s
to the lower 60s.
Southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 to 30 mph at
times early - drop off to 10 to 15 mph overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Focus is on severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night.
Ongoing showers due to a weak shortwave moving thru the area
decrease in coverage from west to east from late morning thru early
afternoon.
Surface low pressure deepens as it tracks from the Mid MS Valley
into the Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night. Wind fields increase ahead
of the deepening surface low and open warm sector to our west
destabilizes during the early aftn as a plume of lower 60s dewpoints
advects north ahead of a surface cold front. This will allow for
moderate instability with MUCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/KG into ILN/s
western counties late in the day. There is some uncertainty regarding
convective timing across the area with some of the CAM solutions as
early as 5 PM in the form of a few discrete cells across Eastern
Indiana and Western Ohio. This probability ramps up as we head into
early evening and more favorable forcing comes into play. Eventually
expect a more organized line to develop and move into western
counties of the area Sunday evening. Strong low level flow may
promote bowing segments and embedded circulations within the line.
This broken line tracks east across ILN/s area thru the evening into
the early overnight hours.
The greatest threat will be strong to damaging straight line winds.
With favorable low level shear there is a risk for embedded
tornadoes, with the highest threat across ILN/s southwest counties.
Additionally, steep mid level lapse rates suggest a large hail
potential as well.
The severe weather threat eventually decreases as the storms head to
the east overnight but uncertainty exists on how quickly the storms
decrease most likely after 06Z in the east.
Associated surface cold front drops east thru the area late Sunday
night and early Monday. The threat for post frontal showers continues
into Monday - especially in the southeast with mid level trof
remaining to the west.
Temperatures turn cooler Monday in the post frontal environment with
highs from near 50 northwest to the lower and middle 60s southeast.
Readings in the east will likely hit these highs early and then drop
off and level out in the middle and upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed trough the region by Monday morning,
though some showers may linger over the region. By Monday afternoon,
northwesterly flow takes over and high temperatures reach the low
50s (west)to mid 60s (central OH/KY). Monday night stays dry as weak
ridging and surface high pressure settle in and large scale
subsidence promote some clearing. Overnight lows fall to some of the
coldest of the week- upper 20s along and north of I-70 and mid 30s
along the Ohio River. Ridging/ high pressure remain present Tuesday,
though slowly sliding east and dry weather continues.
Looking ahead, ensemble guidance suggests a potent shortwave moving
through the larger flow off to our west, dragging a surface low with
it. This surface low is disrupted slightly as the system moves over
the Rockies, but quickly re-intensifies on the lee-side of the
mountains, maturing as it moves over the Plains. ILN enters into it's
broad warm sector Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with
southerly return flow taking over. Precipitation chances are
reintroduced to the forecast, along with gusty winds, and yet another
shot at thunderstorms, particularly Wednesday night through
Thursday. With that being said... CIPS/CSU/SPC all have a Day 5
highlight reaching up into the Tri-State.
As this system moves through, it looks to lay out some type of
boundary through the Ohio Valley. In addition to the mention of
severe above, WPC also has the area highlighted under a Slight Risk
for the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. As the previously mentioned
boundary lays out, it looks as though we'll get multiple systems that
ride along it from mid to end of week, bringing multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall. Where this boundary sets up will be the big question
and will define where the axis of heaviest QPF will occur. Either
way, might be a good time now to check your sump pumps and get a
flood plan in place if you live in a prone area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In an increasing warm, moist regime, an embedded mid level
disturbance will move out of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
into the mid Ohio Valley tonight. Weak lift associated with this
feature, along with some low level convergence, will spread showers
from west to east across the terminals. Although visibilities with
showers will remain mostly MVFR, ceilings will show a gradual
lowering as the atmospheric column moistens/saturates. By 12Z, there
will be widespread MVFR ceilings (between 1000 and 2000 feet) with
areas of IFR possible, especially near the KDAY terminal. Winds will
remain southerly overnight between 5 and 15 knots with occasional
gusts in the 18 to 22 knot range.
For Sunday morning, the mid level disturbance will move away to the
east. This will bring an end to the showers, with a period of mainly
dry weather forecast thereafter in the wake of the disturbance.
Ceilings will lift with diurnal heating, but they may remain in the
MVFR range (2500 to 3000 feet). Winds will increase some as the
pressure gradient tightens out ahead of deepening low pressure and a
cold front to the west. Gusts will range between 20 and 30 knots.
With a destabilizing airmass, and an initial embedded disturbance
rotating around the base of a digging mid level trough, showers and
thunderstorms will develop to the west, likely affect the terminals
in the 00Z to 06Z Monday timeframe. MVFR/IFR conditions will likely
occur with the precipitation.
OUTLOOK...Showers and a few thunderstorms (MVFR conditions) may
linger into Monday morning. MVFR ceilings may also persist into
Monday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms possible at times
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 29, 7:57 PM EDT---------------
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