PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 28, 6:23 AM CDT703
FXUS63 KPAH 281123
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
623 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warm today with breezy conditions.
- Wet this weekend with numerous showers on Saturday and maybe a
thunderstorm or two.
- Numerous showers and storms mainly Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night with the threat for severe weather. All modes of
severe are possible along with heavy rainfall and localized
flooding.
- Another chance for showers and storms Tuesday night through
Wednesday and possibly into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Warm, dry, and breezy today with increasing mid and high clouds as
Saturday's system approaches. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
What is left of the warm front will lift northeast of the Quad State
by this morning. Some showers may push north into SEMO late this
evening and into the overnight hours as a weak upper wave moves
north and re-assimilates into the flow. This wave helps support
our warm air advection showers on Saturday even without a sfc
component as it's being absorbed into the increasing southwest
flow. There is still some timing and coverage discrepancies for
Saturday, but it still looks wet regardless.
How Saturday plays out will likely affect some of the severe
parameters on Sunday. Right now for Sunday models support 2,000-
2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 45-50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, 60s dew points,
and mid level lapse rates of 7-8 degC/km with 8.5 degC/km just
to our north. This system will also have mid and upper level jet
support over the Quad State. Saturday's rain rolling over into
Sunday morning could affect our instability with a cap in place,
but it looks like Sunday morning could actually be dry (but
left PoPs in there for the time being). A line of storms along
the cold front seems likely (a QLCS event) with the potential
for some supercells out ahead of the front. All modes of severe
are possible with environmental support for large hail, damaging
winds, and possible tornadoes. The case for tornadoes is
interesting with 0-3km SRH around 200 m2/s2 and 0-3km shear of
45-50 kts that is nearly perpendicular to the line. This would
be good for any supercells ahead of the line, but would also
support bowing segments and quick spin ups in the line. Heavy
rain is also likely with total rainfall between Saturday and
Monday morning around 0.75"-1.5".
Cooler Monday with highs a few degrees below average in the 50s and
60s and dry. Then a warming trend kicks off on Tuesday into
Wednesday. The next system still has a lot of uncertainty and model
discrepancies with the overall pattern Tuesday onward. However,
most models do support showers and storms Wednesday possibly
into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
High and mid level clouds will build in to the area today ahead
of our next system. Winds will be rather breezy out of the
southwest with gusts up to around 30kts at times. Then with this
next system showers will start to affect the terminals late in
the period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 28, 6:23 AM CDT---------------
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