ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 27, 10:16 PM EDT856
FXUS61 KILN 280216
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1016 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
More widespread showers, and perhaps a few embedded storms, are
expected early this morning ahead of a warm front. Much warmer air
enters the region behind this front and lingers through the weekend.
The unsettled weather pattern continues through this weekend with
multiple rounds of showers and storms expected before drier and
cooler conditions briefly return early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Showers will begin to the west of metro Cincy before daybreak. There
could be a southern limit along the I-74 corridor that will inhibit
any precip from entering northern Kentucky, with the possible
exception where the southern 275 loop cuts through to the south of
metro Cincy. Current forecast has likely to categorical rain in the
south, but latest models are indicating a southern edge that will lie
somewhere over nrn KY and mark the rain/no rain limit. Blended models
which limited much of the rain over KY early this morning to the
12-15Z time frame.
The nose of low level 40-45kt jet along with the approach of a warm
front will lead to an enhanced chance for showers overnight. Expect
widespread showers to develop into the west closer to 5 AM and spread
east through the morning. Could not find any strong isentropic lift
or upward motion to include thunder in the forecast through early
this morning, so have removed thunder through 8 AM, and curtailed it
over the southern 1/2 of the CWA through tomorrow. Milder
temperatures will see lows in the mid and upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern evolves with northwest flow becoming more westerly overnight
into Friday. Ongoing widespread rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms at sunrise will lift north as warm front pivots thru
the area by early afternoon. Pcpn ends as humid air arrives from the
south. With increasing afternoon sunshine - temperatures rise to
highs from the lower 70s north to the mid/upper 70s south. Southwest
winds increase with gusts of 30-35 mph during the afternoon.
In the warm sector dry conditions are likely to continue with no
forcing expected across the region. Mild conditions continue Friday
night with lows in the mid and upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday will feature warm and humid conditions by late March
standards due to persistent southerly flow across the entire region.
A chance for showers and thunderstorms exists Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night when a weak upper level shortwave trough quickly
moves through the Ohio Valley. Model guidance has been all over the
place in regards to precipitation coverage due to difficulty
resolving the upper level support, but at least some showers are
possible.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Sunday into Sunday night
when a low pressure system and associated cold front move across the
area. There is still loads of uncertainty surrounding the timing,
coverage, and strength of convection on Sunday/Sunday night. While
increasing shear may overlap PBL-based instability later on Sunday,
any morning convection or late arrival of the cold front Sunday
night could significantly limit MLCAPE and the severe threat. For a
better severe threat to develop, morning showers would likely need
to clear in time for afternoon instability to develop and storms
would also need to form well ahead of the cold front Sunday
afternoon. Both of these conditions might be difficult to achieve.
Hopefully mesoscale models can provide more insight in the coming
days.
Temperatures drop for the start of the work week after FROPA Sunday
night before rebounding somewhat for the middle of the week. Rain
chances accompany the return of mild temperatures by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR -ra over KDAY for the past few hours will exit and then enter
LCK/CMH area, persisting for about an hour before dying out and
dissipating. Did not add a tempo for VFR -ra with cigs lowering from
10kft to a brief 6kft for these terminals. Will keep an eye on the
strongest returns and amend if MVFR vsby/cig looks to be a
possibility, but attm it does not.
Rain will overspread the region from wsw-ene in response to a warm
front passing to the nne early in the day. This rain will hit
DAY/CVG/LUK early in the morning, and exit near noon at CMH/LCK. As
in the rain seen the past two days, the lower atmosphere will take
some time to moisten up and the majority of the precip will fall as
VFR conditions. An hour or two of high end MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible at any of the terminals in the morning. This should not
imply that all of the sites will see this reduction but that lower
cigs/vsbys will affect some of the region in the morning. Best
chances of this look to be at DAY/ILN as noted in a tempo grouping.
VFR cloud cover will lift in the afternoon and scatter out towards
nightfall for much of the region, closer to nightfall at CMH/LCK.
Southwest wind will quickly drop to under 4kt as they turn s-se
overnight, handled with a VRB wind direction. As morning and rainfall
comes in, winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt.
Some 40kt wind shear is possible in the southwest as the surface
winds are topped with a weak lljet that will likely mark the onset of
rain at CVG/LUK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Friday night through early
Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 27, 10:16 PM EDT---------------
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