PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 28, 12:54 AM EDT618
FXUS61 KPBZ 280454 AAB
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1254 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase today with the passage of warm front.
Unsettled weather will continue into early next week with above
average temperatures expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures today
- A passing warm front will increase shower chances
- Isolated thunderstorm possible
-------------------------------------------------------------------
No major changes to the overnight period. Slowed PoPs late
tonight as atmosphere remains very dry. Latest hires model data
is also slowing the onset of rainfall.
Rising 500mb heights today will pull a surface warm front
northward through the region. An area of scattered showers,
associated with the boundary, will slowly move through. A weak
shortwave will ride over top of the developing ridge this
afternoon, providing upper level support to the crossing
boundary. There could bring some enhancement in the coverage
and intensity of the showers this afternoon due to the increased
large scale ascension. This, combined with a minor
destabilization of the atmosphere, means an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
It will take most of the day for the front to move north of the
region. However, showers will end from southwest to northeast
late this afternoon and during the evening as the region will
become entrenched in the warm sector.
Warm air advection is expected throughout the day and even with
the clouds and showers, high temperatures will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures continue tonight into Saturday
- Mainly dry Saturday
- Shower/storm chances increase Saturday night and Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An amplifying ridge is expected on Saturday. The rising heights
will force the surface warm front, that crossed the region on
Friday, further north and will also slow the eastward progress
of a shortwave trough moving across the Midwest. This will
place the region well into the warm sector and also increase
subsidence. Would expect much of the area to remain dry on
Saturday.
High temperatures will continue to warm on Saturday. Readings
are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Latest NBM
probs for MaxT > 75 are generally 60 to 90% south of I 80. Even
seeing some higher probs (50 to 60%) over southwest PA,
southeast Ohio and northern WV for MaxT greater than 79. Will
likely go above the NBM mean for highs on Saturday.
A low pressure system will track across the Midwest toward the
Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday. There is still large
amounts of uncertainty on the timing of showers/storms on Sunday
At the moment, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights a
15% chance for organized severe storms in eastern Ohio Sunday
afternoon/evening. Latest NBM prob thunder for Sunday has
lowered due to a slower eastward movement of the cold front
associated with the western low. 3hr prob thunder by late Sunday
is 5 to 15%, the highest of which is over far western portions
of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Storm chances increases Sunday night into Monday
- A cool-down is most likely heading into next week.
- Gradual warming trend expected to start Wednesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The most recent guidance continues to slow the cold frontal
passage, pushing it back to sometime Monday morning. Therefore,
the potential for showers/storms could last through Sunday night
and Monday morning. Much of the deterministic guidance is also
showing the stronger convection much further south where the
stronger upper level support will cross and also where the more
unstable air will rest. 3hr prob thunder from the NBM Sunday
remains low, around 10 to 15%. Again, a lot of uncertainty
remains during this time period.
Once the system moves out of the region Monday afternoon, dry
and cooler conditions are expected through Wednesday morning.
From Wednesday to Friday, expect a gradual warming trend with
temperatures well above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broken VFR decks are forecast tonight for most, with rain
chances creeping into eastern Ohio in the early morning.
Decoupled wild profiles overnight will keep winds roughly
southerly to southwesterly. Thickening and lowering clouds are
forecast towards morning as the warm front rides up the Ohio
Valley. There is some uncertainty as to the exact onset time of
rain given a gradual ramp up of forcing in dry air, though the
uncertainty was mostly captured with VCSH. There is confidence
in rain for all ports sometime between 14Z and 00Z tomorrow with
a warm front. There is roughly a 65% chance that cigs drop to
MVFR (most likely), a 10% chance ceilings remain VFR, and a 25%
chance ceilings briefly drop to IFR in rain.
Thunderstorms could not be ruled out tomorrow, given we achieve
some elevated instability, but the chances at any individual
port remain 25% or less, with no mentions included for now.
After the rain clears, decks are expected to rapidly scatter in
the warm sector. Some shear is possible tomorrow night as a low
level jet sits just above a surface-based inversion.
Outlook...
Restrictions and showers are possible Saturday, before showers
and thunderstorms become likely Sunday with crossing low
pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22/Lupo
AVIATION...Milcarek
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 28, 12:54 AM EDT---------------
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