IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 7:29 PM EDT794
FXUS63 KIWX 242329
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
729 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty westerly winds diminish this evening.
- Remaining cool through Wednesday with a few low chances for
showers (20% to 30%), primarily toward central Indiana.
- Mild Thursday through the weekend with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Overall forecast on track with winds slowly diminishing in many
areas. Higher gusts still lingering somewhat south of US-30 and
short range models do hint at a slower decrease after sunset
than other areas, likely due to the clear skies in these areas
vs a narrow ribbon of linger clouds still limiting some of the
mixing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Wind gusts quickly ramped up over northwest Ohio early this afternoon
as skies scattered out, allowing strong LLJ winds to mix down. Wind
gusts remain elevated as of this writing, especially at Lima, but
wind speeds are decreasing as the LLJ moves east, as does the parent
low. Clearing skies tonight will allow temperatures to fall below
freezing, especially over southern MI.
A broad trough remains in place over the eastern Great Lakes through
Wednesday. Northwest flow spilling over our area permits a couple of
shortwaves to track in from the Northern Plains. The first of these
disturbances races in tonight, bringing rain to primarily
central Indiana. Tuesday morning, another wave races in on its heels
and could bring some light rain to my far southern counties, though
once again central Indiana appears to be the biggest benefactor of
rain. A similar setup occurs once more Tuesday night.
High pressure becomes centered over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night
allowing for a brief period of dry weather. Return flow as this
feature shifts east on Thursday allows temperatures to warm into the
upper-50s followed by even more mild air Friday as upper-level
heights continue to rise.
The end of the week is characterized by mild, above-normal
temperatures and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Model disagreement abounds, especially Friday with the strength and
placement of the upper-level ridge. POPs were limited somewhat in
that timeframe. In the wake of this ridge a deep low is forecast to
develop over the Central US. This low will be worth watching as the
SPC has highlighted our area (and many other states) on their Day
Seven severe weather outlook (Sunday); fair enough via pattern
recognition. Yet, details are sparse at this distance, especially
considering that Friday still need to be sorted out as well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
VFR conditions to finally dominate with winds slowly
diminishing. Will take a bit longer at KFWA based on recent
trends, but overall heading in the right direction in terms of
lesser impacts from the gusts. With regards to previous mention
of fog, lack of overall new moisture, anticipated dewpoint
depressions and likihood the winds won't fully decouple fog
threat seems fairly limited at this point and will continue to
leave out.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 7:29 PM EDT---------------
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