MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 12:21 AM CDT ...New Aviation...842
FXUS64 KMOB 230521
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Now through Sunday night...
Zonal flow aloft and mostly clear skies will persist through noon
Sunday, followed by a south-southwesterly flow aloft as an upper
trough over the midwest states moves eastward over the Great Lakes
region with the base digging southward to the central portions of
Mississippi and Alabama. Surface low pressure area over southern
Minnesota Sunday morning will deepen as it moves over the Great
Lakes, while an associated cold front approaches our region from the
northwest. A light southerly flow off the Gulf this evening will
result in a gradual return in boundary layer moisture setting up a
potential for patchy late night fog development. This signal is
showing up from the short range ensembles in fog probabilities,
increasing up to 60-80% after 5 AM Sunday morning, continuing to
shortly after daybreak when visibilities improve. We will need to
monitor for a possible Dense Fog Advisory later tonight.
Lows tonight will be in the middle 40s to lower 50s inland, middle
50s along the coastal communities, and around 60 degrees at the
beaches and barrier islands. Highs on Sunday will be balmy, reaching
the middle 70s to lower 80s inland, and lower 70s along the coastal
communities.
Clouds thicken from west to east Sunday night and a more unsettled
period sets up. Ahead of the cold front, a potentially organized
convective system will be moving through the northern and central
portions of Mississippi and northern Alabama Sunday evening. This
line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move into our area
after midnight, and perhaps reach as far southeast as the I-65
corridor by late Sunday night. This line will encountering a much
less favorable environment for thunderstorms, so primarily expecting
showers with only isolated embedded storms as forecast soundings
suggest very poor lapse rates from the surface up to nearly 3km.
Although lapse rates do improve above 3km to give way to some weak,
elevated instability, storms moving through the area will likely not
be surface-based. Gusty winds (and maybe some small hail) cannot be
ruled out with some of the more robust storms as they enter into the
far interior areas of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama.
Rip current risk remains low over the weekend. /22
Monday through Saturday...
A weakening frontal boundary, which entered the local area Sunday
night, will continue to move through the region on Monday
morning. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing along the front, or along the remnant
outflow from the Sunday night QLCS/MCS. Depending on how fast the
front/outflow moves through the area will ultimately determine the
convective coverage for Monday. Faster moving surface features
will help to push most of the convective activity offshore, giving
way to drier conditions starting late Monday morning. Slower-
moving boundaries, however, may allow for activity to redevelop
over coastal counties during the late morning/early afternoon
hours as diurnal heating gets underway. Shear and instability look
to improve through the morning hours, however, the best forcing
looks to have moved to the east of our area (as seen by upper-
level confluence moving in). Therefore, although I'm not really
anticipating much in the way of severe weather due to the limited
forcing, cannot rule out a few storms producing gusty winds or
small hail. Rain chances decrease once the boundaries push
offshore.
Upper-level troughing will remain in place over the eastern US
through Thursday before finally lifting into the Atlantic, giving
way to a dry northwesterly flow pattern. High pressure at the
surface will also remain in place through Wednesday, bringing dry
and warm conditions to the local area. A weak 'backdoor cold front'
may pass through the area Wednesday night into Thursday from the
northeast which will help to bring a reinforcing shot of dry air
into the region. Very low humidity values may bring some fire
weather concerns (especially for Thursday), however, at this point,
winds should remain light. Our next chance of rain looks to return
to the area on Saturday. Highs will generally top out in the upper
70s to low 80s each day and lows will generally be in the 50s. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Light to calm wind overnight. Patchy fog is expected to develop
across most of the area during the overnight hours and begin
dissipating a couple hours after daybreak. At present time, lowest
vsby at TAF sites look to be down to MVFR categories by and after
23.09Z. There is a signal for the potential of dense fog, but this
appears more focused over the FL Peninsula north of I-10 into
portions of southern AL. Forecasters will monitor. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025
A weak cold front approaches from the northwest Monday and
is expected to settle near the coast around Monday evening. Ahead of
the front, chances of showers increase late Sunday night. Showers
become likely Monday morning with a few thunderstorms mixed in.
Outside of the Sunday night and Monday weather event, no impactful
marine weather anticipated. /10 /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 60 76 56 80 57 84 56 80 / 50 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 62 74 58 77 60 80 58 77 / 40 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 62 72 60 75 60 78 58 76 / 20 80 10 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 55 75 48 82 52 83 50 79 / 60 70 10 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 58 76 49 82 53 82 51 82 / 80 60 0 0 0 10 0 0
Camden 58 74 47 80 53 80 51 79 / 70 60 0 0 0 10 0 0
Crestview 54 75 52 82 52 84 51 80 / 20 80 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 12:21 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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