IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 3:09 AM EDT715
FXUS63 KIND 250709
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
309 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain showers today, best chances along and south of I-74
- Near normal temperatures through Thursday...unseasonably warm
Friday-Sunday with highs into the 70s
- Thunderstorm chances increasing late this week...severe weather
possible late this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Showers will be present across Central and South Central Indiana
through the day today; however not expecting a washout as showers
will be scattered in nature.
Latest satellite imagery depicts a weak disturbance over Missouri
within the northwest flow pattern aloft. A 120 kt upper jet streak
stretches from around Alberta southeastward into southwest Indiana
today with forcing for ascent located within the left exit region.
The surface reflection moves from Central MO into Southern KY
through the day with low level frontogenical forcing setting up
under the jet streak roughly from Central Illinois through South
Central Indiana. Latest ACARs sounding does show a dew point
depression in Indianapolis about 5 degrees drier than what the
latest RAP shows. Better saturation in the lower levels looks to be
focused in SW Indiana closest to the disturbance. With moisture
advection fairly weak and such dry antecedent conditions, expect
showers to be scattered in nature with high cloud bases and light
rainfall rates across Central Indiana... with the exception in SW
Indiana. In fact, many areas, especially north of I-74 may remain
dry today.
Observations indicate rain is reaching the ground in SW
Indiana this morning along and SW of a line from Sullivan to Bedford
where the best forcing for ascent and deeper moisture is located.
With the upper jet and associated forcing nearly stationary today,
this area across South Central and Southwest Indiana south of I-74
will be the primary focus for showers this morning and then shower
redevelopment later this afternoon. Will have to watch radar and
temperature trends later this morning as any dry breaks may allow
for enough surface heating to slightly destabilize the lower levels.
While the threat is very low, an isolated lightning strike or rumble
of thunder is not out of the question this afternoon.
Rain will likely keep temperatures at or below guidance in the
southwestern half of the area today. Any dry breaks will allow for
surface temperatures to rise toward the 50 degree mark.
For tonight, guidance holds onto lower and mid level clouds, so have
gone ahead and raised min temps toward the NBM75th percentile to
account for less than optimal conditions for radiational cooling.
Expect lows near freezing for North Central Indiana and mid to upper
30s further south and west where cloud cover and isolated showers
persist.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Amplified upper level flow pattern continues across the country for
midweek with a broad ridge west and a trough east. However by late
week into the weekend...the ridge will expand east leading to a
transition to warmer and more unsettled conditions.
Wednesday through Thursday Morning...
Weak high pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley as northwest
flow aloft persists. Despite sunshine on Wednesday...expect a
continuation of the weather of the last few days with seasonably
cool temperatures in the 50s. Winds will flip to southerly Wednesday
night as the high shifts into the central Appalachians and return
flow develops.
Thursday Midday through Saturday Night
The transition to a wetter and more active pattern commences on
Thursday with the approach of a warm front into the region from the
west during the afternoon. The warm front will lift north slowly
into Friday as low pressure eventually kicks out into the Dakotas.
With a strengthening low level jet extending into the area by
Thursday night and Friday...confidence continues to increase in
multiple waves of convection moving through central Indiana as the
boundary lifts north. Potential for up to an inch of rain in a broad
swath across the forecast area by late day Friday but the bigger
impact from the shift of the warm front north into the Great Lakes
will be the onset of much warmer air into the Ohio Valley for
Friday. Highs will rise well into the 70s on Friday.
The forecast beyond Friday becomes muddier in the details although
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue. An
upper level wave is poised to lift out of Texas and into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys on Saturday as it weakens. This will provide
the forcing aloft for another round of showers and storms for the
first half of the weekend with a renewed surge of deep Gulf moisture
advecting into the region. Highs Saturday will remain warm in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Sunday through Monday...
A strengthening upper low will move east into the central Plains on
Sunday with a deeper surface wave ejecting out of the Rockies in
response. The low will track east into the Ohio Valley by late day
Sunday and supports a potential threat for severe weather as shear
and instability increase ahead of the system. A low level jet will
pump moisture into the region with diffluent flow aloft which should
enhance convective coverage and intensity for Sunday afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a possibility on Sunday
with PW values rising to near 1.50 inches by late day ahead of
the cold front.
In the wake of this system for early next week...the roller coaster
will continue as cooler conditions will prevail with light showers
before high pressure takes over. Daytime temperatures are likely to
revert back to below seasonable levels in the 40s to lower 50s next
Monday and Tuesday with a return to warmer temperatures by the end
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Impacts:
- Scattered showers this afternoon
Discussion:
Mainly VMC expected through the TAF period even with scattered
showers around today. Latest satellite imagery shows a weak
disturbance over Missouri within the NW flow pattern aloft. VFR
clouds extend from Alberta southeastward into South Central Indiana,
under the northwesterly jet aloft. Latest ACARs soundings indicate
much drier air in the boundary layer than what guidance suggests, so
keeping cigs VFR as any showers that do develop will likely have
higher bases and be more scattered in nature. Best threat for any
showers this morning through this evening will be at KBMG and KHUF
and points southwest as these areas will be closest to the
disturbance moving through. There is a slim chance of a lightning
strike this afternoon; however not including it in the official TAF
as low confidence exists in this occurrence and exact locations.
Much lighter winds expected today as the low level jet is
significantly weaker. West to northwesterly winds around or less
than 10 kts likely through the period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...CM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 3:09 AM EDT---------------
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