CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 3:47 PM EDT943
FXUS61 KCLE 241947
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
As a low moves east-northeastward across southeastern Ontario
and southern Quebec, a trailing trough lingers in our region
before a weak ridge slides eastward across northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday morning through most of the
afternoon. During late Tuesday afternoon through evening, a weak
cold front will sweep southeastward through our area. Behind
the front, another ridge builds from the northern Great Plains
and vicinity through Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, W'erly to NW'erly flow, primarily cyclonic in nature
with embedded shortwave disturbances, affects our region through
daybreak Wednesday. However, a subtle shortwave ridge is
expected to traverse our CWA generally from west to east Tuesday
morning through afternoon. At the surface, a trough extends
SW'ward from the Upper St. Lawrence River Valley and vicinity
for the time being. A ridge accompanying the aforementioned
shortwave ridge aloft will cross our region from west to east
Tuesday morning through afternoon. Late Tuesday afternoon
through evening, a weak cold front should slide SE'ward through
our area in association with another shortwave trough aloft.
Behind the front, another ridge builds from the northern Great
Plains and vicinity.
Deep, diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer easily
tapping into ~40 knot SW'erly to W'erly flow at 850 mb will
allow SW'erly to W'erly surface winds to gust up to 40 to 50 mph
through this late afternoon. Early this evening, gusts are
expected to ease significantly or cease altogether as the
boundary layer begins to stabilize via nocturnal cooling. The
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening or
our entire CWA. Partial clearing and easing surface winds should
permit sufficient nocturnal cooling for lows to reach the lower
to mid 30's around daybreak Tuesday. During the day on Tuesday,
intervals of sunshine and developing low-level WAA on the
backside of the first surface ridge axis should allow late
afternoon highs to reach the lower 40's to lower 50's. Low-level
CAA behind the aforementioned cold front will contribute to
lows reaching the mid 20's to lower 30's around daybreak
Wednesday.
Primarily fair weather is expected through the near-term period
due to the following: A primarily dry low-level atmospheric
column, including along the expected cold front, and stabilizing
subsidence accompanying the aforementioned ridges. However,
moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of a shortwave trough axis,
may trigger isolated to scattered rain showers through this
late afternoon in northern OH and NW PA, especially north of
U.S. Route 30. During this evening through the first several
hours of Tuesday morning, lingering showers over far-NE OH and
NW PA, ahead of the shortwave trough axis, are expected to
change to a rain/snow mix or just snow via the wet-bulb effect
and nocturnal cooling. The seeder-feeder process and weak lake-
induced instability amidst a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-
level atmospheric column over/downwind of ~4C Lake Erie should
allow the lingering showers to become lake-enhanced, albeit
slightly, as the showers stream generally E'ward. Any snow
accumulations are expected to be less than one inch and confined
to the higher terrain of far-NE OH and NW PA.
Moist isentropic ascent ahead of a separate shortwave trough
axis embedded in NW'erly flow aloft may allow a few light rain
showers to graze Marion, Morrow, Knox, and Holmes Counties
Tuesday evening. Finally, toward and through daybreak Wednesday
morning, NW'erly mean low-level flow may become sufficiently-
cold/moist and weak lake-induced CAPE may be sufficient for
isolated and light lake-effect snow showers to develop and
stream SE'ward across much of Lake Erie, NW PA, and much of
northern OH. These LES showers may amount to a trace to 0.5".
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will be a transition period across the region
as an upper trough will move east and the upper level ridge will
begin to build in from the west. For Wednesday, the main concern
will be continued cold advection over Lake Erie with some surface
troughing lingering across the area. With the lake generally ice-
free and some cold enough air, there could be some lake enhanced
snow showers but the low level temperatures are fairly marginal and
surface temperatures are warm and should allow for little to no snow
accumulations, but flakes will be in the area. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be well below normal in the upper 30s to 40s. The
surface trough will move out of the region and high pressure will
enter from the southwest, allowing for warmer air to enter and a
window of dry conditions. Improving moisture with a minor shortwave
within the larger upper ridge will allow for some rain chances late
on Thursday night, but may end up being more of a Friday issue. High
temperatures on Thursday will be near normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term forecast continues to trend toward a warmer solution
with more rain and possibly storms with temperatures above normal
for much of the period. The culprit for this trend will be the
evolution of an upper level ridge over the central CONUS, which will
abate colder air to the north for much of the period. However, a
series of shortwave troughs will undercut this ridging and allow for
a pair of low pressure systems to train through the Midwest and into
the Great Lakes region and allow for periods of rain and have PoPs
ranging from chance to likely throughout the weekend. There are
still some critical timing and location differences in the extended
guidance to get too specific with higher PoPs yet. If temperatures
can get into the 70s for the weekend, there could be enough
instability to get some storms to develop, but remain guarded to the
overall storm threat at this time, as repeated rounds of rain could
limit the overall potential. The second shortwave will evolve across
the area on Sunday into Monday and pull the colder air into the
region as a surface cold front crosses the area and will have a
downtrend in both temperatures and PoPs for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances
affect our region through 18Z/Tues. At the surface, a low moves
E'ward from near northern Lake Huron to southern Quebec and
continues to extend a trough into our region. However, a weak
ridge will attempt to build into our area through Tues morning
as the core of a ridge moves E'ward from the Lower MS Valley
area toward the Carolinas.
Our regional surface winds are expected to be SW'erly to W'erly
around 20 to 25 knots and gust up to about 30 to 40 knots
through this early evening. Thereafter, gusts are expected to
cease quickly and SW'erly to W'erly winds are expected to ease
to around 10 to 15 knots across the majority of our region.
However, winds are expected to remain SW'erly to W'erly around
15 to 20 knots and gust up to 30 knots at KERI through 18Z/Tues.
Widespread low-level ceilings near 3kft to 4kft AGL are
expected to dissipate across most of northern OH by ~00Z/Tues.
However, across far-NE OH and NW PA, these low-level ceilings
will likely persist through 18Z/Tues due to lake-effect
stratocumuli expected to develop and stream generally E'ward
from Lake Erie this evening through at least most of Tues
morning. Primarily fair weather is expected through the TAF
period. However, one of the aforementioned disturbances may
trigger isolated rain and/or snow showers over far-NE OH and NW
PA, including KERI, late this afternoon through ~14Z/Tues. These
showers may become lake-enhanced, albeit slightly, later this
evening into Tuesday morning. Conditions are expected to vary
between VFR and MVFR in precip.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated rain and/or snow
showers Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Scattered
rain showers with non-VFR possible this Thursday night through
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty winds continue across the region with good mixing of a 40 kt
low level jet to west to southwest surface winds around 25-30 kts.
Some of the higher elevation marine observations may occasionally
hit a gale force wind gusts, but the sustained surface winds should
stay a touch lower. A higher end Small Craft Advisory will be
maintained for the lake into tonight. Water levels did fall below
the critical mark with the stronger winds across the region and will
maintain the Low Water Advisory headline into tonight as well. With
low pressure departing the region for Tuesday and a weaker trough
over the lake, west winds will be less intense with time and the
Small Craft Advisory headline will be able to end by Noon. The flow
will flip to the northwest by Wednesday as the trough continues to
weaken and move out. High pressure will build from the southwest on
Thursday and southwest flow will overtake the lake and increase with
time. A warm front will approach the lake for Friday and allow for
some variable flow with some southeast to east flow possible.
Overall, the probability of another marine headline after the
current set is low until the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>144.
Low Water Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>144-
162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 3:47 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
