CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 3:36 PM EDT262
FXUS61 KCLE 231936
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
336 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the northern Great Lakes tonight,
sweeping a cold front across the area. The low will lift
northeast towards Quebec Monday, but an upper trough will linger
over the region through Tuesday. A ridge will gradually build
east towards the area Wednesday through late this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough and associated surface low move across the
Great Lakes region this evening into tonight, with warm
advection precipitation moving in from the southwest over the
next few hours. Model guidance has really struggled to resolve
the extent of the precipitation, as well as the temperature
rise this afternoon, with less precipitation and cooler
temperatures than expected (by like 5 degrees). This has made
this forecast a little more challenging than it should be
normally. If precipitation doesn't fill in more by sunset, will
have to chop up the current PoP forecast for this evening into
tonight.
A strong low-level jet move in overhead, with strong southwest
winds likely to develop. It's uncertain how strong wind gusts
will be given the expectation for a stratified boundary layer
due to the rain, though if there is less rain, then perhaps we
can see more 35-40 mph wind gusts. Erie County PA is one
location that we'll need to keep an eye on for a short duration
Wind Advisory between approximately 02-07Z. Several models have
40 knot winds, though the thought is that this is overdone and
these models aren't appropriately capturing the poor mixing
that is expected.
The cold front moves across the area tonight, signaling the end
of precipitation, along with a sharp shift of the wind direction
to out of the south-southwest. The cold air advection regime
behind this front will lead to greater confidence in gusty winds
throughout the day Monday, with wind gusts of 35-40 mph common
through the day areawide. Wrap around moisture moves in from the
northwest Monday afternoon into Monday, with scattered rain/snow
showers expected. Temperatures should be rather marginal, so any
snow that does fall shouldn't accumulate. The exception may be
in Northwest Pennsylvania where temperatures will be cold enough
for minor snow accumulations of less than an inch generally.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
We'll be within chilly northwest flow beneath troughing aloft on
Tuesday. A mainly dry day, though some lake enhanced rain/snow
showers may linger early in far Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A low
amplitude shortwave dives out of the Upper Midwest and through the
Ohio Valley Tuesday evening and night. This system has trended a bit
farther south compared to yesterday's runs, so while the forecast
maintains chance POPs (30-40%) for rain/snow Tuesday night across
most of our inland counties confidence in much precip remains low. A
chunk of colder air aloft arrives for Wednesday behind this system,
perhaps allow for a bit of minor lake effect snow into far Northeast
OH/Northwest PA into Wednesday morning, though with modest high
pressure building out of the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley later
Wednesday into Wednesday night am expecting a mainly dry day for
Wednesday with a fair amount of sun for most of us.
Highs on Tuesday in the 40s to near 50 in our far western/southern
counties. Lows Tuesday night in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Highs trend
a bit cooler for Wednesday, ranging from the upper 30s in far
Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the mid to upper 40s in Northwest
OH. A chilly one Wednesday night, with lows expected to range from
the mid to upper 20s in most of interior Northeast OH and Northwest
PA to either side of 30 across Northwest and North Central OH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longwave troughing over the Northeast U.S. to start the long term on
Thursday will replaced by ridging along the East Coast for this
weekend, as a trough and associated low pressure take shape over the
Plains and slowly work east. Confident at this point that Thursday
and likely Thursday night will stay entirely dry as upper-level
confluence and surface ridging only slowly exit to the east. A
baroclinic zone/warm front is expected to develop over the area on
Friday and remain nearby or lift north slightly over the weekend.
Shortwaves tracking along this baroclinic zone and eventually the
approaching larger upper trough and low pressure will be the focus
for rain chances Friday and through the weekend. Guidance generally
suggests a couple of very weak/flat shortwaves will work east across
the region Friday and Saturday, with the main upper trough and
surface low approaching from the west on Sunday. Given the weak
nature of the shortwaves Friday - Saturday and lingering timing
differences, some disagreement on where the baroclinic zone sets up,
and some disagreement on how quickly surface ridging and upper-level
confluence can exit to the east, POPs are just in the chance (30-
50%) range for the Friday through Saturday period. Some room to come
up whenever confidence increases. POPs start touching likely (60-
70%) on Sunday. Temperatures will trend from cooler than average on
Thursday to on the warmer side of average for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions are observed with primarily mid to upper-level
clouds, though this should change over the next several hours as
precipitation located over the Ohio Valley lifts northeast
across the area this afternoon through early tonight. The rain
itself will likely be a mix of VFR/MVFR before ceilings drop to
MVFR. A cold front moves across the area tonight, signaling the
end precipitation, followed by likely improvements to mostly
VFR conditions Sunday morning as clouds scatter out. Wrap around
moisture returns during the afternoon from the northwest, so
may start to see clouds fill back in (ceilings around 2-4kft)
with isolated rain/snow showers.
Winds are currently light, though should start to see winds out
of the southeast pick up this afternoon through early tonight,
with gusts of around 25 knots expected, with brief peak wind
gusts around 30-35 knots. Behind the cold frontal passage
tonight, winds flip around to out of the west-southwest, with
wind gusts of 30-35 knots through the end of the TAF period.
LLWS may be possible tonight as a strong low-level jet moves
overhead, though didn't quite include it in the TAFs due to
sporadic nature and somewhat marginal wind speed difference.
Outlook...Non-VFR may continue into Monday and Monday night
with cloud cover and scattered rain/snow showers. Non-VFR is
possible with rain showers on Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
South-southeast winds will increase to 15-25kt from west to east
this evening as strong flow ahead of low pressure moving into the
northern Great Lakes overspreads Lake Erie. Winds quickly veer
southwesterly overnight tonight into early Monday morning as a cold
front sweeps east across Lake Erie, with winds increasing to 20-30kt
behind the cold front. Winds gradually veer from southwest to more
westerly Monday afternoon and evening as a secondary surface trough
axis pushes southeast across the lake. Winds will remain 20-30kt
through Monday evening before gradually subsiding into Tuesday,
falling below 20kt Tuesday morning. Winds should then remain 20kt or
less through the rest of the week, though we'll need to watch for a
brief push of northwest winds that may near 20kt on Wednesday.
Unsettled marine conditions are possible for the weekend as larger
low pressure approaches from the west.
40-45kt wind gusts are likely over the lake at times Monday and
Monday evening, primarily over the central and eastern basins.
Sustained winds will approach gale at times, particularly from near
the Islands and into the central basin early Monday morning...and
then from the Islands points east into the PA and NY waters Monday
afternoon and evening. Essentially no raw model guidance has
sustained gale-force winds over the lake despite wind fields aloft
supporting it, likely due to the cold lake waters (with some ice
still in the NY waters) limiting boundary-layer mixing over the lake
as the strongest winds aloft are overhead. Given this, am continuing
to just ride with very high-end Small Craft Advisories that kick in
for the initial period of south-southeast winds the first half of
tonight, with advisories not dropping off until early Tuesday
afternoon over the eastern basin. Waves will increase to 2 to 5 feet
in the open waters this evening, and then 6-10 feet east of the
Islands early Monday into Monday night, with 3-7 feet in the western
basin. Water levels will sharply drop early Monday across the west
end and remain low (while sloshing around a bit) through Monday
evening. Have gone ahead with the Low Water Advisory with this
package from 8 AM Monday through 2 AM Tuesday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
Monday for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
Tuesday for LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 3:36 PM EDT---------------
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