PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 12:13 PM CDT226
FXUS63 KPAH 231713
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
today through early tonight. A few thunderstorms may reach
severe levels during the late afternoon and early evening
hours across the Missouri Bootheel and western Kentucky.
- Mostly dry and mild weather is expected through most of the
work week. Temperatures will be about five to ten degrees
above normal values.
- The next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend along with even warmer temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Today and tonight...Elevated showers and thunderstorms are
moving across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this
morning as 300K isentropic upglide intensifies on the nose of a
northward advancing warm front. This activity will spread into
the Evansville Tri-State as we approach daybreak, with more
isolated to scattered activity across western Kentucky. There
may be a relative lull in activity in the mid to late morning
hours with only isolated precipitation as the region is in the
open warm sector, but this will be short-lived. Gradient winds
will be breezy at times, initially from the southeast, but
shifting to the southwest this afternoon. Gusts of 30-35 mph are
not out of the question, especially if there some breaks in the
cloud cover to mix down higher gusts aloft. Under plentiful
cloud cover, temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 60s
in most locations, with dew point temperatures rising into the
lower to middle 50s.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will fire ahead of an
approaching cold front during the mid to late afternoon, roughly
along the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River. This activity will
begin as unicellular storms before growing upscale into a line.
While instability will be a limiting factor, deep layer shear
of 50-70 kts and H7 to H5 lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will promote a
risk of a few supercells with all hazards possible, primarily
large hail and damaging winds, but a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out as well. This would be from roughly 3 to 9 PM across
the MO Bootheel region and western Kentucky. SPC has this area
under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today, and would
not be surprised if some parts are placed under a slight risk if
instability parameters trend higher.
The convection will quickly exit the region to the east tonight
as the trailing surface cold front passes through the region.
Total rainfall still looks modest, ranging from 0.50-0.75" along
the Interstate 64 corridor to 0.10-0.25" along the MO-AR and
KY-TN borders.
Monday through Thursday...Broad troughing across the eastern
CONUS will drive the synoptic pattern for the first half of the
work week. Temperatures will be still mild, about five to ten
degrees above normal. While the majority of the region will be
dry, a couple weak shortwaves in the H5 northwest flow will
bring small rain chances, first Monday night into Tuesday
morning and again Thursday into Thursday night. Both
disturbances look to be weak and deprived of moisture, so any
rain that does fall will be light. The relatively better chances
of seeing rain will be across southern Illinois into southwest
Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Friday through Saturday night... Our next chance of widespread
showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday into Saturday. This
will be driven by an H5 trough ejecting from the Four Corners
region, with surface low pressure traveling from the southern
Great Plains to Upper Midwest. WAA showers are expected to
increase in coverage on Friday, followed by heavier showers and
convection on Saturday as the trailing cold front passes. It is
too early to say if this system will pose a severe risk, but it
definitely merits watching. Temperatures will remain well above
normal, by roughly 10-15 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
A cold front and a couple boundaries will pass through the TAF
sites this afternoon bringing lower ceilings along with rain
showers. Scattered strong thunderstorms may also impact the
PAH/OWB sites and possibly the CGI TAF site, but confidence is a
bit lower at CGI. The storms may produce hail and gusty winds
along with lower vsbys due to heavy downpours. The showers and
storms are expected to end by or around 23Z, ending from west to
east. Good flying conditions can then be expected overnight
through Monday as winds shift to the northwest.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 12:13 PM CDT---------------
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