LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 7:15 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...632
FXUS63 KLMK 232315
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
715 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered showers, gusty winds, and possible thunderstorms are
expected this evening as a cold front sweeps through the region.
Isolated wind gusts of 35-40 mph possible late this afternoon and
evening. A few strong to severe storms possible across south-
central Kentucky late afternoon and evening.
* Near normal temperatures Monday through Thursday, with periodic
rain chances beginning Tuesday, and substantial dry periods in
between.
* Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for showers and storms
Friday into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Warm front is currently lifting northward across KY. This can be
seen on the Kentucky Mesonet as we have low/mid 40s along the Ohio
River into the Bluegrass with even mid/upper 60s and a few isolated
70s to the south along the KY/TN border. Bulk of the precipitation
so far today has been associated with the front part of a strong LLJ
that is working across the region along the Ohio River. Per current
radar mosaic the bulk of the precipitation has worked into southwest
Ohio with just some light scattered showers across southern IN and
central KY. Warm front will continue to lift northward this
afternoon helping to increase the WAA with a slight increase in sfc
moisture. Southern and central KY remain under a marginal risk for
severe weather this afternoon and evening. SPC has even issued a MCD
that just includes part of our CWA (Logan County) for a possible
watch later this afternoon.
We still expect thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and
evening, with the best chances remaining across the souther part of
our CWA closer to the KY/TN border. Here we have seen warmer
temperatures with higher dew points while areas to the north have
remained cooler and likely will stay cooler due to prolonged cloud
cover this afternoon into the evening. The lack of instability
continues to be a limiting factor for activity later today given
that models continue to show less than 500J/kg of SBCAPE but we do
have plenty of shear as well as steep mid-level lapse rates. Gusty
winds, large severe hail and given the curved clockwise hodographs,
an isolated spin-up can't be entirely ruled out and this continues to
fit with the SPC's 2 percent tornado risk, which includes Bowling
Green.
Cold front will push through from west to east later this evening.
Timing still has it sometime between 7pm to Midnight EDT. A narrow
band of convection and moderate to heavy rainfall is possible.
Rainfall amounts will not be very highs a 0.25-0.50 inches are
possible with this band of activity. Winds will shift from the south
to more westerly behind it as we go overnight. As the cold front
works off to the east, clouds will start to clear from the northwest
to the southeast after midnight but winds will remain steady out of
the west. Lows will be in the low 40s to a few upper 30s in southern
IN.
High pressure builds in from the west during the day tomorrow. It
will be dry with sunny skies. With the clear skies, we could get
good mixing in the afternoon. Another gusty day is possible with
gusts between 25-35 mph. This could also allow for temperatures to
warm into the low/mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Upper level longwave troughing is forecast to linger over the Ohio
Valley through at least Wednesday, before lifting off to the
northeast late in the week. Relatively fast NW flow aloft will
feature embedded shortwave disturbances that briefly enhance the
potential for light rain.
The first such chance is early Tuesday morning. A subtle mid-level
wave and weak sfc reflection will swing southeast over the Lower OH
Valley. Low-level SW flow ahead of this wave may produce sufficient
moist isentropic ascent for a band of light rain over portions of
the area. Moisture isn't all that deep, and models are not very
consistent on the exact placement of this rain. QPF remains fairly
low, but think we will see at least a narrow swath of light rain
prior to sunrise. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to
mid 40s.
At least low rain chances will linger through Tuesday night/early
Wednesday in a fairly active NW flow pattern. Stronger large scale
ascent will briefly enhance rainfall potential late Tuesday,
particularly over the northeastern half of the CWA. Highs Tuesday
should range from the mid/upper 50s in the Bluegrass to the low/mid
60s in south-central KY. Lows Tuesday night will range from the
mid/upper 30s in the Bluegrass to the lower 40s in south-central KY.
For Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, conditions should be
mainly dry with high pressure working across the region during this
time. A period of CAA and lighter winds should allow temps to drop
well into the 30s early Thursday morning. Lows could dip to near or
below freezing in some areas, most likely from southeastern IN
through the Bluegrass Region. Highs should still recover into the
low to mid 60s for Thursday with southerly return flow developing in
the wake of the departing high.
We'll transition to a more active southern stream late in the week
into next weekend. It does look likely temperatures will warm above
normal, with highs solidly in the 70s by Fri/Sat. There will likely
be showers and storms at times, but timing those waves is very
problematic at this time range.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Lines of thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front will cross
central Kentucky early this evening, progged to push east of RGA by
04Z. Winds will be somewhat chaotic ahead of the front but should
generally prevail out of the SW-WSW.
Behind the front skies partially clear and winds lessen as high
pressure noses in from the Ozarks. Under mostly sunny skies Monday
daytime winds out of the west will become slightly gusty.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...13
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 7:15 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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