ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 8:17 PM EDT069
FXUS61 KILN 210017
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
817 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region tonight and Friday with
southwest winds bringing in warmer air. These winds and warmer air
will continue through early Saturday when a cold front will cross the
region. Warmer air working in ahead of another cold front on Sunday
will bring the next significant threat of rain to the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cloudy skies will clear during the overnight hours and temperatures
will drop to between 25 and 30 degrees warmest south of the Ohio
River. The axis of a surface high will pass from west to east
overnight, and winds will turn southwest as it crosses.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Southwest flow under some higher cloud cover will permit high
temperatures to rise into the lower 50s, mid 50s over northern
Kentucky. Wind will remain southwest overnight and only drop slightly
from daytime speeds, which will keep lows between 40 and 45.
Saturday will have yet another cold front pass over the region early
in the day. The airmass behind the front is not originating in a
substantially cooler region, and westerly wind aloft does not
allow deep northwest flow to bring any winds aloft down to the
surface. Highs will reach the upper 40s north of the I-70 corridor,
upper 50s to near 60 along and south of the Ohio River.
As is found tonight, a high pressure axis will move east across the
CWA early in the overnight period. Southeast winds will bring some
return moisture and inhibit any significant temperature falls in the
southwestern CWA. Lows will drop to the upper 20s in central Ohio to
the upper 30s south and west of metro Cincinnati.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A much stronger system, more dynamics and deeper moisture, will
affect the region Sunday into Monday. Categorical PoPs with showers
and a chance of thunderstorms will ramp up during the day Sunday,
peaking Sunday night ahead and along a cold front. Still too early
to tell whether severe potential will creep this far north, but will
keep an eye on later model runs. Some showers, mainly north, will
linger in the post frontal airmass on Monday. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s Sunday will begin to cool some by Monday, especially west,
in the post frontal airmass (highs in the upper 40s northwest to the
lower 60s southeast). Breezy to windy conditions can be expected
during this period as well.
As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday, it appears it will be cooler
as a mid level trough sets up residence across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Shallow instability and embedded s/wvs in the northwest
flow will bring sporadic chances for showers. Some snow may mix in
across the north at night. Models disagree on the timing of the next
cold front (Thursday or Friday), so will keep a dry forecast going
for Thursday. Temperatures will be near or cooler than normal for
late March.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Secondary cold front is sweeping through the region and MVFR clouds
will abruptly lift to a scattered deck then eventually clear out
during the overnight hours. Sky remains clear into much of Friday
before an upper level deck of cirrus moves in ahead of a quick moving
system.
Northwesterly wind gusts that have dominated the afternoon hours
today will quickly die down after sunset as we lose daytime mixing
and high pressure moves into the region. In fact, we'll have a few
hour period overnight where winds may go nearly calm, particularly
for our southern sites (KCVG/KLCK). With recent rains, we might
briefly see some river valley fog begin to develop at KLUK, but
confidence is low so did not include in TAFs.
Friday morning, winds will shift to out of the southwest and increase
in intensity as we head through the afternoon hours. Expect gusts to
20 knots out of the southwest possible through the afternoon and into
evening.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings are possible on Saturday with MVFR ceilings
and visibilities likely on Sunday. Wind gusts around 30 kt are
possible Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 8:17 PM EDT---------------
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