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756 FXUS64 KLIX 160932AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA432 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Tueday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025After perhaps at least one of the strongest historical tornado outbreaks in our CWA (not by count but after surveys possibly by intensity and path length) the forecast is generally quiet for thenext week. There will be some small rain chances but overall we are looking at cool and dry conditions most days. The trough axis will finally move through today with broad weak ridging building in behind it and expected to become centered over the MS Valley by Tuesday. The next disturbance will already be working in out of the Pacific and approaching the Continental divide by then. At the sfc it is fairly benign with high pressure building in behind the cold front today and becoming centered over the LA coast tonight and slowly sliding east towards the north-central Gulf Monday night. This should help to provide chilly nights for this time of the year with morning lows tomorrow morning about 5-10 degrees below normal and Tuesday morning about 3-5 degrees below normal. Highs today could be a little tricky however. Currently there is not a lot of cloud cover but as the sun comes up today with the h85 thermal trough not expected to move over and east of the area till late today if not this evening weak CAA may continue in the LL. This many times can quickly lead to cold weather cu developing with mostly cloudy skies however much drier air is moving in and fcst sndgs show very little moisture to tap into to get those clouds. With that we did bump up the fcst highs today a few degrees to be more in line with the MOS number from. NBM just appeared to be a little too cool with the highs. On the other hand tonight the NBM is warmer than all of the MOS guidance and by a 2-3 degree in most locations. However, the LL winds will remain in the 20-30kt range all night. That promotes some mixing, even if the boundary layer winds are able to decouple for a few hours. That said if the winds at h925 and h85 are lighter than expected the the lows currently in fcst will be too warm and possibly by 2-4 degrees, especially in the typical cool spots like the river drainage areas and MCB. Currently advertising a few spots in the upper 30s tonight across southwest Ms and lower 40 down to I-12 but if things work in the wrong direction lows could be more in the mid 30s to near 40 along and north of I-10 and coastal MS. High pressure continue to slide to the east Tuesday and we begin to moderate before the next system late in the week. /CAB/&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025Medium range models are in fairly good agreement. Pattern is quiet progressive for the second half of the week with two system moving across the central CONUS. Both will bring a cold front but with limited moisture return both could be dry. Some isolated to widely scattered light showers can't be ruled out but any real appreciable rain is a far cry at this time. Both systems will be accompanied by a weak cold front which will reinforce the slightlybelow normal temps that we will see for the first half of the week. That said Friday morning we did deviate from the NBM a touch. Given how fast the system is late Wednesday high pressure is already over top of the area Thursday evening and just to the east by Friday morning. Conditions are setting up for a rather favorable radiational cooling night and the NBM appears to be a little on the warm side. The deterministic value is actually slightly below the mean but still quite a few degrees warmer than what the ECX and MEX are showing for Friday morning. With that we did bump lows down only a degree or two but mainly wanted to get this out there for anyone that has already planted things as frostis not out of the question Friday morning. Biggest negative with that would likely be rather dry BL conditions as dewpoints would likely still be a few degrees lower than the morning lows. /CAB/&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025May be a few MVFR conditions remaining, but even those shouldn'tlast much longer. VFR conditions will then be in place for theremainder of the forecast period. Northwest winds will be gustyduring the daytime hours tomorrow, but nothing of the magnitudethat occurred Saturday afternoon. /BW/&&.MARINE...Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025Winds have slacked off over the coastal waters for now but thiswill be short lived as a secondary cold front quickly worksthrough this morning. The reinforcement of offshore winds willcommence and pick up across all of the waters this morning. Thiswill lead to SCY conditions everywhere through today and into theevening hours. Winds should start to quickly subisde as tomorrowas high pressure moves over top of the area. High pressure remainsin place through Tuesday until it slides to the east and return flow sets back up. May have some brief SCA conditions on Wed aheadof the next front. After the cold front moves through Wednesdaynight/early Thursday SCY conditions are expected to redevelop withthe re-establishment of offshore flow. /CAB/&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 68 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 70 42 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 73 42 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 71 51 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 71 45 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 76 42 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-552- 555-557. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ570-572- 575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ552-555- 557. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ572-575- 577.&&$$SHORT TERM...CABLONG TERM....CABAVIATION...BWMARINE...CAB
