IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 6:54 AM EDT302
FXUS63 KIND 201054
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
654 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder with rain and snow showers at times, ending this
afternoon.
- Winds gusting to between 30-40mph today, up to 35mph on Friday.
- More showers are expected at times, this weekend, with the best chances
Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures will teeter totter near
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Surface low pressure is located over Illinois as of 3am, and will
slowly work its way northeastward today. Low clouds and occasional
showers are expected while the low traverses the region. Thermal
profiles hint at the potential for snow mixing in at times,
especially across the northern half of our CWA. Additionally, higher
resolution guidance hints at a transition to more convective
precipitation during the afternoon...which would allow some graupel
to mix in as well.
Winds will turn northwesterly as the low passes by, roughly around
sunrise. There may be a corridor of stronger winds downstream of
Lake Michigan with gusts up to 40mph. We will nudge winds upwards
across our northeastern counties based on the relatively strong
signal in high res guidance. Winds should diminish rapidly after
about 9pm as surface high pressure returns.
As for temperatures, we went a bit under guidance today since the
main upper-level trough is passing overhead with persistent low-
level cloud cover underneath. Additionally, the presence of
scattered showers should help mitigate diurnal recovery.
Temperatures have a better chance of rising into the mid 40s
southwest of Indianapolis where some sunshine is possible before
the day is out. Overnight, expect lows in the 20s as clouds clear
and winds die down. Efficient radiational cooling will lead to a
hard freeze for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Three Pacific Northwest waves will being shower chances to central
Indiana through the long term with the best chances Sunday and
Sunday night as that system will be the broadest and strongest with
the center of the surface low as low as 990 millibars as it moves
into the Missouri Valley, This will bring return flow off the Gulf
and model soundings are showing deep saturation. Otherwise, the
Friday night system will be sorely lacking moisture which supports
the 20-30% PoPs going only over northern sections, closer to the
higher yet mediocre moisture. Finally, cyclonic flow around the
stronger system and another weaker northwest wave support lingering
low PoPs next week.
DESI LREF-NH Grand Ensemble data set supports temperatures mostly
near or slightly below normal which looks reasonable except Friday
and Sunday have potential to reach or exceed normal with brief
return flow ahead of low pressure systems. Early mornings next week
could future freezing temperatures, mainly over northeastern
sections.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings developing early in the TAF period, possible IFR.
- Scattered showers into the afternoon, rain possibly mixed with
snow.
- Gusty winds at times between 25-35kt, wind shift from WSW to NW
this morning. Gusty southwesterly winds return on Friday.
Discussion:
A low pressure center located over Illinois is working its way east
into Indiana. Low clouds and scattered showers associated with this
low will move in early in the TAF period, leading to MVFR ceilings
at times. Upstream observations show ceilings between 1000-1500ft
agl but some scattered obs of 800ft are coming in. As such there's a
low chance of IFR ceilings but they will not be explicitly forecast
for now. Clouds should diminish around 00-03z.
Scattered showers will be present within this area of low clouds
with snow possibly mixing in at times. Overall, precipitation will
be fairly light and should diminish gradually after 14-16z. Some
additional shower development is possible this afternoon. Best
chance of precip lingering into the afternoon hours is LAF to IND.
Winds shift to northwesterly early this morning and increase in
magnitude, gusting to between 25-35kt today. Winds rapidly diminish
this evening, possibly becoming light and variable tonight.
Southwesterly winds return on Friday, becoming gusty again with
gusts as high as 25 to 30 knots at times.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 6:54 AM EDT---------------
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