JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 2:03 AM EDT897
FXUS63 KJKL 200603
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
203 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds will continue to be gusty through the evening and early
overnight, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected for most
locations.
- Wildfire danger continues into this evening, with dry weather
and increased wind.
- A cold front will bring a brief period of showers for most
places tonight, followed be a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
Refreshed hourly temperature, grids with recent observations. No
major changes have been made to the forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 1020 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
The Wind Advisory has been expanded to include the entire forecast
area, and the time extended to 09z (5 AM EDT) Thursday. Part of
the reasoning for this is that observations across central
Kentucky show several sites with 35-kt gusts out of the south a
couple of hours ahead of the convective line. Model BUFKIT
soundings also suggest the potential for decent momentum transfer
as well in the couple of hours before the convective line arrives
overnight. An extenuating circumstance is the fact that the
previous Wind Advisory was expiring at 03z, which is when more
recent models suggest winds and wind gusts would be increasing
again as the front arrives. Please note that this Wind Advisory
does not account for any winds associated with the precipitation
with this system, which will also be capable of producing stronger
wind gusts due to strong winds just above the surface.
The Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire at 02z, but gusty
winds into the overnight, especially as the cold front nears,
combined with poor RH recoveries on mid-slopes and ridgetops, will
allow for wildfires to spread faster than typical for this area
well into the overnight. This concern was also an extenuating
circumstance in expanding and extending the Wind Advisory.
UPDATE Issued at 653 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Early evening update is out primarily to update the PoPs and Sky
grids through the overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 333 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Current surface analysis across the CONUS has a strong surface low
moving out of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. This surface
low is currently situated over northern Missouri/southern Iowa but a
trailing cold front extends to the southwest plus a quasi-
warm/stationary front is extended eastward toward the Great Lakes.
Ahead of this system, surface high pressure will exist and within
the warm sector well above average temperatures exist across eastern
Kentucky. Also, a strong LLJ has developed which has allowed for
increased surface winds across the the CWA.
Through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, the strong LLJ
and warm temperatures will continue to filter into the CWA. These
will combine to create an increased critical fire weather threat
across the CWA. Therefore, due to the strong winds and fire weather
threats, previous shifts have issued a Wind Advisory for the west, a
Red Flag Warning for the east and SPS for counties not under either
a Wind Advisory or Red Flag Warning and not anticipating any changes
to those products this afternoon. Otherwise, strong winds and
temperatures in the mid to upper-70s to even low-80s is expected for
today.
As the Central Plains surface low lifts into the Great Lakes, the
trailing cold front will approach the CWA and bring increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Since the timing of the front
is more toward the overnight, instability will be lacking;
therefore, severe thunderstorm chances will be low but not zero. The
main concern will be strong to gusty winds as any thunderstorm could
mix those upper-level winds down to the surface. Once FROPA occurs
by Thursday morning; a brief lull in shower activity will occur
before the post-frontal upper-level trough swings through bringing
another round of showers through the day Thursday. As critical
thicknesses fall behind the cold front, areas of wintry mix will be
possible as the system ejects off the east. Widespread accumulations
aren't likely but light accumulations will be possible across the
southeastern high terrain before high pressure builds in for the end
of the period.
Overall the forecast period will feature above average temperatures
and strong winds, it'll conclude with near seasonal temperatures and
chances for light snow accumulations.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
The forecast period starts with surface high pressure behind a
departing cold front. Temperatures will continue to be more seasonal
with highs climbing back into the low to mid-60s for Friday
afternoon but as an upper-level trough develops over the Great Lakes
and dives southeast, a surface low and accompanying boundaries will
develop. This surface low will begin to dive southeast overnight
Friday into Saturday but due to a widespread lack of moisture, PoP
chances will be less than 15% overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. The dry cold front won't have much of an impact to eastern
Kentucky. The area will still be featuring CAA, behind Thursday's
cold front, leading to highs in the low to mid-50s. Through the
weekend; temperatures will continue to warm into the lower-60s for
Saturday and mid-60s for Sunday.
Aside from the dry front on early Saturday morning, surface high
pressure will exist through majority of the weekend but beginning
late Saturday night, a surface low will develop off the lee of the
northern Rockies. Through the day Sunday, this surface low will
track along the U.S./Canada border with the trailing cold front
tracking eastward toward the Commonwealth/CWA. Through the day
Sunday, increasing PoP chances are expected with thunderstorms
developing late Sunday afternoon and continuing through very early
Monday morning. The system will slowly track through the Great Lakes
and drag the cold front through the CWA before FROPA occurs late
Monday evening. Due to a lack of instability, thunderstorm chances
will be low if not zero through FROPA. Surface high pressure will
build back into the region for late Monday night and continue
through early Tuesday morning.
Model confidence decreases substantially after Tuesday as the ECMWF
tries to bring a weak Clipper system on the heels of the exiting
Sunday/Monday system. The GFS keep surface high pressure through the
end of the period. However, didn't deviate from the NBM which has a
system moving into the region bringing 20%-30% PoP for Tuesday
afternoon, 30%-40% overnight Tuesday and decreasing PoP for
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
A strong cold front will approach and pass across the area
through ~08z with a narrow band of showers. Southerly winds will
also continue, and in some cases increase again, ahead of frontal
passage, with exposed terminals possibly gusting up to 35 kts.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at the beginning of the
period, with MVFR conditions possible within the more intense
showers. Winds diminish some behind the frontal passage, but an
approaching upper-level trough/front will allow for southwesterly
winds to increase and become gusty before becoming northwesterly
in the afternoon. As winds become northwesterly, MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions in widespread light shower activity is expected at
most if not all terminals beginning around 16z-18z and continuing
through 00Z before conditions gradually improve from west to
east, starting with KSME and KLOZ.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK/VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 2:03 AM EDT---------------
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