JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 3:34 PM EDT447
FXUS63 KJKL 191934
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
334 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds will continue to be gusty through the afternoon and early
evening, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected for most
locations.
- Wildfire danger increases today, with dry weather and increased
wind.
- A cold front will bring showers for most places tonight,
followed be a sharp temperature drop for Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 333 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Current surface analysis across the CONUS has a strong surface low
moving out of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. This surface
low is currently situated over northern Missouri/southern Iowa but a
trailing cold front extends to the southwest plus a quasi-
warm/stationary front is extended eastward toward the Great Lakes.
Ahead of this system, surface high pressure will exist and within
the warm sector well above average temperatures exist across eastern
Kentucky. Also, a strong LLJ has developed which has allowed for
increased surface winds across the the CWA.
Through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, the strong LLJ
and warm temperatures will continue to filter into the CWA. These
will combine to create an increased critical fire weather threat
across the CWA. Therefore, due to the strong winds and fire weather
threats, previous shifts have issued a Wind Advisory for the west, a
Red Flag Warning for the east and SPS for counties not under either
a Wind Advisory or Red Flag Warning and not anticipating any changes
to those products this afternoon. Otherwise, strong winds and
temperatures in the mid to upper-70s to even low-80s is expected for
today.
As the Central Plains surface low lifts into the Great Lakes, the
trailing cold front will approach the CWA and bring increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Since the timing of the front
is more toward the overnight, instability will be lacking;
therefore, severe thunderstorm chances will be low but not zero. The
main concern will be strong to gusty winds as any thunderstorm could
mix those upper-level winds down to the surface. Once FROPA occurs
by Thursday morning; a brief lull in shower activity will occur
before the post-frontal upper-level trough swings through bringing
another round of showers through the day Thursday. As critical
thicknesses fall behind the cold front, areas of wintry mix will be
possible as the system ejects off the east. Widespread accumulations
aren't likely but light accumulations will be possible across the
southeastern high terrain before high pressure builds in for the end
of the period.
Overall the forecast period will feature above average temperatures
and strong winds, it'll conclude with near seasonal temperatures and
chances for light snow accumulations.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
The forecast period starts with surface high pressure behind a
departing cold front. Temperatures will continue to be more seasonal
with highs climbing back into the low to mid-60s for Friday
afternoon but as an upper-level trough develops over the Great Lakes
and dives southeast, a surface low and accompanying boundaries will
develop. This surface low will begin to dive southeast overnight
Friday into Saturday but due to a widespread lack of moisture, PoP
chances will be less than 15% overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. The dry cold front won't have much of an impact to eastern
Kentucky. The area will still be featuring CAA, behind Thursday's
cold front, leading to highs in the low to mid-50s. Through the
weekend; temperatures will continue to warm into the lower-60s for
Saturday and mid-60s for Sunday.
Aside from the dry front on early Saturday morning, surface high
pressure will exist through majority of the weekend but beginning
late Saturday night, a surface low will develop off the lee of the
northern Rockies. Through the day Sunday, this surface low will
track along the U.S./Canada border with the trailing cold front
tracking eastward toward the Commonwealth/CWA. Through the day
Sunday, increasing PoP chances are expected with thunderstorms
developing late Sunday afternoon and continuing through very early
Monday morning. The system will slowly track through the Great Lakes
and drag the cold front through the CWA before FROPA occurs late
Monday evening. Due to a lack of instability, thunderstorm chances
will be low if not zero through FROPA. Surface high pressure will
build back into the region for late Monday night and continue
through early Tuesday morning.
Model confidence decreases substantially after Tuesday as the ECMWF
tries to bring a weak Clipper system on the heels of the exiting
Sunday/Monday system. The GFS keep surface high pressure through the
end of the period. However, didn't deviate from the NBM which has a
system moving into the region bringing 20%-30% PoP for Tuesday
afternoon, 30%-40% overnight Tuesday and decreasing PoP for
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Terminals are VFR with this TAF issuance and will remain VFR
through much of the period minus a cold front tonight and an
upper-level trough tomorrow. Currently, TAFs are VFR but are
seeing strong southerly winds that are sustained 10 to 15 knots
with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Those winds will continue to
gust through the afternoon but LLWS will reappear in the TAFs at
KJKL and KSJS with the cold front overnight. Increasing rain
chances are expected after 02Z/Thursday and persist through 08Z
before moving off to the east. Winds will diminish during this
timeframe through early morning before a post-frontal upper-
level trough swings through. As that trough pivots into the
region, winds will increase again out of the west- southwest.
Also, increasing showers chances are expected to increase toward
the end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ068-069-079-
080-083>085.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ086>088-104-
106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 3:34 PM EDT---------------
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