JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 1:45 PM EDT256
FXUS63 KJKL 191745
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds will increase late this morning into the afternoon, with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected for most locations.
- Wildfire danger increases today, with dry weather and increased
wind.
- A cold front will bring showers for most places tonight,
followed be a sharp temperature drop for Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Refreshed diurnal curves with latest observations and forecast
trends. No major changes to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Today, dry weather continues with strong southerly winds continuing.
South winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph are possible, with a
strong low level jet across the area mid-morning through the
afternoon. Temperatures have been adjusted up above NBM guidance,
blending in the 75th percentile of the NBM. This was done to achieve
warmer temperatures due to stern southerly winds advecting in warm
air, along with breaks of sun and clouds, particularly across extreme
eastern Kentucky. As such, highs are forecasted in the upper 70s to
low 80s, with any 80s likely occurring from West Liberty-Jackson-
Hazard, east to the KY/WV boarder. With warm temperatures and strong
southerly winds, humidity will drop through the day. Critical fire
weather conditions will likely be met anywhere from Lee down to Bell
counties and over to the KY/WV boarder. Relative humidity
percentages can drop as low as 15-20 percent in these areas, while
having 20 foot winds above 15 mph, as such Red Flag Warnings have
been issued by previous shifts. Winds gusts from Wayne to Whitley up
to Jackson and Rockcastle could reach as high as 40 mph. As such a
Wind Advisory was also issued for those areas.
This afternoon a strong upper level low approaches the Missouri
Valley/Corn Belt area of western Nebraska and southern Iowa. This
low will have a cold front moving through western and central
Kentucky later this afternoon, arriving in eastern Kentucky likely
after sunset. Rain showers will develop from west to east closer to
midnight and continue through Thursday. Most areas will see a
quarter inch or less of rainfall, with locally higher amounts.
Because of the timing of the systems frontal passage across eastern
Kentucky, instability will be more limited than what will be
available today across western and central Kentucky. Probability of
thunder was marginal, and agreed with previous shifts with keeping
the mention of it out of the forecast for the above reasons. That
said, the Storm Prediction Center does have the I-64 corridor and
north under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. These storms
may have little lightning, with the main threat being wind. Lows
Wednesday night will generally range in the 40s, with lower 40s
west, approaching 50 near the KY/WV boarder.
Thursday, much cooler conditions expected with continued light rain
showers. Some areas may only rise 4-6 degrees from their morning
lows, with highs in the upper 40s in the west to mid 50s in the
west. Winds will be southwesterly early, becoming westerly,
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 513 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Beneath an upper trough, dissipating comma head moisture (left
over from a cyclone which traversed the Midwest) will be over our
area at the start of the long term period. A few showers may still
be present, but they should be dissipating Thursday evening. That
will leave us with ridging at the surface and aloft building in
overnight into Friday. The cool air mass, clearing skies, and
weakening wind will allow for chilly morning lows well below
freezing most places.
The ridging will depart eastward on Friday, and a shortwave trough
and surface low passing well to our north will send another cold
front through our area on Saturday. Moisture will be very limited
and the front's only meaningful effect will be a reinforcing cool
air mass arriving once it passes.
Surface high pressure behind the front will pass eastward over the
region Saturday night. Most of the night will have good cooling
conditions, but clouds may start to arrive overnight. This would
be due to warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of our next
system. In fact the 00Z GFS even has precip arriving in our
southwest counties by dawn. Have only allowed for a 20% POP in
our far southwest, with an eventual likelihood for the area as a
whole to see rain by Sunday evening. Based on forecast soundings
and low level thicknesses, some brief light snow can't be ruled
out if precip were to arrive early Sunday morning. The system's
cold front should pass through Sunday night, with most if not all
precip ending by Monday morning as drier air arrives.
Beyond that time frame, confidence drops off. Models show a rather
innocuous impulse aloft which generates light precip in our
vicinity sometime Monday night-Tuesday. This feature is likely to
change in subsequent runs, but a low POP for rain has been
included. A previous run of the GFS showed some light snow
potential, but the probability of everything coming together for
that is low and it was left out for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Terminals are VFR with this TAF issuance and will remain VFR
through much of the period minus a cold front tonight and an
upper-level trough tomorrow. Currently, TAFs are VFR but are
seeing strong southerly winds that are sustained 10 to 15 knots
with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Those winds will continue to
gust through the afternoon but LLWS will reappear in the TAFs at
KJKL and KSJS with the cold front overnight. Increasing rain
chances are expected after 02Z/Thursday and persist through 08Z
before moving off to the east. Winds will diminish during this
timeframe through early morning before a post-frontal upper-
level trough swings through. As that trough pivots into the
region, winds will increase again out of the west- southwest.
Also, increasing showers chances are expected to increase toward
the end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ068-069-079-
080-083>085.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ086>088-104-
106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 1:45 PM EDT---------------
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