IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 1:22 AM EDT553
FXUS63 KIWX 180522
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
122 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild weather returns with highs in the 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- Rain late Wednesday will precede the arrival of much colder
air Thursday.
- The mix of rain and snow will end Thursday morning. Little if
any snow accumulation is expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Quiet near term as broad sfc ridge across the OH valley gives way to
deepening low pressure across the central plains. Warm advection
begins to ramp late day and especially tomorrow/Wed within bulging
downstream warm sector across the lakes. Temps will respond in
kind with widespread 60s and perhaps a few 70 degree temps
possible especially Tue aftn in well mixed/breezy env.
Primary attention this period focused on powerhouse cyclone progged
to develop back west late Tue and its rapid ewd ejection into the OH
valley late Wed. Leading upper low, as seen in prior days, does open
up as it tracks into lower MI late Wed night while upper trough
amplifies into the deep south and induces a potent frontal wave up
along the east coast late Thu. While GOA sourced moisture return
into the lead sys is slow, sys ewd progression had slowed as well
with some risk for strong-severe storms with a wind damage threat
late day Wed tied to adequate low level theta-e return amidst
formidable LLJ in excess of 50kts. This also nets a more nwwd track
of lingering/weakening mid level deformation zone late Wed night/Thu
morning and lessor risk for accumulating snow northwest. Regardless
blustery punch of cold advection wing and snow showers will provide
for a stark reminder of the season.
Thereafter short amplitude and moisture starved weak secondary
disturbance follows early Sat ahead of more robust wave
disturbance wrapping up across the plains again Sun and into
the lakes by Mon. Potpourri of weather possible with this sys
pending track and intensity yet with notable spread present in
med range solutions. Long term persistence would point to
another sig winter wx event tracks northwest through the upper
midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
Continued warm advection takes place with winds out of the south.
The low level jet pushes away from the area by daybreak today and
that helps gusts relax this morning, but another jet pushes in for
the afternoon allowing a resurgence of gusts to around 25 kts then.
Look for LLWS until around daybreak and another bout of it after 00z
tonight as well. Flight condition-wise, ridging keeps the area dry
and the dry air keeps the area in VFR through the TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 1:22 AM EDT---------------
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