BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 14, 7:29 AM EDT635
FXUS61 KBOX 141129
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
729 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Turning milder today into this weekend, especially away from
the south coast, with unseasonably mild and windy conditions
Sunday. A strong cold front will bring the potential for heavy
rain and strong southerly wind gusts Sunday night into Monday
morning. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday with unseasonably mild
temperatures returning Wednesday. An approaching cold front may
bring a risk of showers next Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak surface ridge holds sway over our weather today. For much
of the early morning hours this will mean a shallow layer of
moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. The resulting
clouds should slowly dissipate from west to east later this
morning. It will likely take most of today to get significant
breaks in the clouds towards the Cape and islands. No
precipitation to speak of though. With a little more sunshine
today, especially across the interior, expecting higher
temperatures than what we had yesterday. Coastal areas will not
see as much of a warm up due to continued E to NE winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The synoptic pattern does not change much tonight into Saturday.
Expecting another round of marine stratus to return tonight.
Still some question as to how far inland these clouds will get.
Thinking winds will be light and not provide much push to drive
clouds inland. Low levels should be slightly more humid, opening
the door for some fog and low clouds that way also.
Increasing south winds Saturday, but still not very strong. More
breaks of sunshine along with the slightly warmer start should
lead to above normal high temperatures across more of southern
New England away from the immediate south coast. Low risk for a
late day stray shower or two, but not enough to mention in the
forecast at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Heavy rain and strong to damaging winds possible Sunday night
through Monday
* Drying out Tuesday bringing calmer conditions for Wednesday
* Low pressure approaches southern New England Thursday
Details...
Saturday night remains quiet and mild with continued southerly
flow. The interior can expect lows in the mid to upper 40s, but
areas with the wind coming directly off the cooler Atlantic, the
south coast, Cape Cod, and the islands, will see lows dip into
the lower 40s and upper 30s. Abundant moisture will continue to
flow into the region with the southerly flow and its WAA,
shrinking dew point depressions and increasing PWAT values to
close to an inch by Sunday morning.
Sunday is expected to be much warmer than normal, with highs in
the urban centers and CT Valley reaching around 65F. Some spots
in the Merrimack Valley could see highs close to 70F; ensemble
probabilities for exceeding 65F there are quite high, ranging as
low as 40 percent in the GEFS to 85% in the ECMWF ENS. PWAT
values by Sunday evening will likely exceed 1.10" with the
continued southerly flow. The robust LLJ is still in play for
the evening hours as it moves over southern New England, and it
could lead to some strong wind gusts at the surface. Ahead of a
cold front, a period of heavy rain will move through the region
Sunday night going into Monday. Rainfall totals over southern RI
into the Cape and Islands have ensemble probabilites around 40
percent for exceeding 1.5" over a 24 hour period. Totals of at
least an inch can be expected across the region, with totals of
1.5" to just under 2" possible moving from south central MA down
to the south coast and out along the Cape and Islands. Possible
river rises along more major rivers due to the combination of
heavy rain and any remaining snowmelt are another facet of this
system, along with higher tidal levels particularly during the
Sunday night high tide.
Following this system, mid to upper level ridging builds back in
over the region, drying things out and setting up another
warming trend. Highs may once again reach the low 60s across the
region and southerly flow returns for midweek after shifting
from the NW during the day Tuesday. Low pressure over the Great
Lakes Thursday will be something to monitor as it may continue
east.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
MVFR-IFR stratus lingering this morning across RI and SE MA,
becoming VFR in the afternoon, aside from possibly the Cape and
Island terminals. Light E-NE wind.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Areas of MVFR-IFR stratus expected to redevelop, but areal
extent is uncertain. LIFR possible with fog in some areas, but
timing and extent is uncertain. Light to calm wind shifting S to
SE.
Saturday...High confidence.
Becoming VFR through the morning as low clouds and fog
dissipate. More clouds arrive late in the day with MVFR/IFR
possible towards the south coast.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt. Chance RA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up
to 35 kt. RA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up
to 30 kt. RA.
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.
Tuesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday...High confidence.
A period of NE gusts to 25 kt over waters S and E of ACK tonight
as low pres passes to the south. Otherwise, winds mainly below
20 kt through this period. Mostly E-NE flow today turning SE-S
tonight and increasing S winds Saturday. Marginal rough seas
near 5 feet will persist over outer waters as offshore low pres
passes, with seas subsiding below Small Craft Advisory levels
later today into tonight.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 12 ft. Chance of rain.
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Chance of rain.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250-
256.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 14, 7:29 AM EDT----------------
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