LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 5:32 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...829
FXUS63 KLMK 180932
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
532 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warm and breezy weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind gusts
may approach advisory levels on Wednesday.
* A chance for showers and storms returns Wednesday evening. Strong
to severe storms will be possible, with main hazards of winds and
hail.
* Light precipitation will linger into Thursday with a chance of
wintry mix in the morning.
* Later this week and into the weekend, two systems will bring more
chances for showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
Conditions are mostly clear with a light SE wind this morning. Sfc
high pressure is analyzed over eastern KY/TN, and we're seeing a
little steadier 4-8 mph wind over the western 2/3 of the forecast
area. As a result, temperatures are in the low/mid 40s along and
west of I-65 with some readings as low as the low/mid 30s along the
I-75 corridor. Temperatures are not expected to drop much from this
point thanks to slowly increasing southerly winds.
Today will be mostly sunny and much warmer due to increasing SW low-
level flow and robust warm air advection. Mid and upper level
ridging will continue to build over the region today as a potent
upper level trough swings over the Rockies. Deepening sfc low
pressure over the High Plains will produce a tighter pressure
gradient downstream. Like the previous forecasts, have kept high
temperatures on the warmer side of model guidance. Afternoon
temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s as southerly
winds gust to 20-25 mph. A few peak gusts to 30 mph look
possible.
A stronger 50 kt SW LLJ develops overhead tonight as the low
continues to deepen over eastern KS. High clouds will also increase
in coverage, all of which will yield a very mild night. We'll stay
dry with lows in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
Wednesday - Thursday...
Troughing originating off the Pacific NW Coast will deepen and move
east into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. This trough will
produce a surface low pressure system on the leeward side of the
Rockies. This system is progged to translate NE into the southern
Great Lakes, sending a cold front through the Ohio Valley Wednesday
night into Thursday. With pressure gradients tightening as the low
pressure approaches and a 55-60kt LLJ moving over the region, we
could see windy conditions on Wednesday and another chance at a wind
headline. Pockets of sun will be possible over the Bluegrass, which
could help mix LLJ winds to the surface. The ECMWF EFI for sustained
winds and wind gusts has consistently shown elevated values for the
last several days, which indicates above normal winds. ENS/HREF show
a 70-80% chance of exceeding wind advisory criteria, however some
cluster of the LREF show weaker probability of exceedance values.
Therefore, ensemble guidance shows medium confidence with some
uncertainty in the strength of the trough. A wind headline will not
be issued with this forecast, however, one may be needed later today.
Along and ahead of the cold front, showers and storms are expected
to move through in the late afternoon and into the early part of the
overnight period. An axis of a few hundred joules of SBCAPE will
ride along the cold front and ample deep layer shear will allow for
storms to develop in the afternoon over western Kentucky. Storm mode
may begin as supercells and then grow upscale into a line of storms.
Greatest hazards will be gusty to damaging winds and hail, with low
freezing levels. Although, a tornado can not be ruled out in the
extreme NW portion of the region, where there is better forcing for
organized cells and higher forecasted SRH. As these storms move
east, they will be limited by moisture where dew points in the
region have just reached the low 50s and waning daytime heating.
Given the limiting factors, best chances for strong to severe storms
will be along and west of I-65 at this time.
As precip wraps around the western side of the elongated low
pressure system, there is a chance for some wintry mix Thursday
morning and then transitioning back to rain. Still not expecting any
impacts or accumulations at this time.
Thursday Night - The Weekend...
As the low pressure system shifts off to the NE, high pressure will
quickly move across the northern Gulf. This will allow winds to
shift to the south and warmer temperatures to move in. Friday looks
to be quiet, clear, and mild with temperature in the low-mid 60s.
Saturday, a shortwave trough approaches the region from the west
bringing another low pressure system through the region. This system
is currently forecasted to be much weaker than the previous few
systems, however will increase chances for rain Saturday.
A progressive pattern will continue, bringing another system through
the region late Sunday into Monday, bringing yet another chance for
rain. The CPC has Kentucky and southern Indiana outlined in a heavy
rain slight risk, so will monitor this system closely over the
coming days. At this time the severe weather risk with this system
remains low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
VFR continues. The main aviation impact during this forecast period
will be LLWS and gusty southerly sfc winds at times.
Brief LLWS concerns at the start of this TAF period at HNB/SDF. A 35-
40 kt SW LLJ has developed overhead. Sfc winds will increase and
become gusty after 14-15Z. Expect breezy southerly winds through the
afternoon hours, with gusts diminishing by 23Z.
A stronger SW LLJ will move in after 00Z Wed as a deep area of low
pressure lifts northeast over the central Plains. Expect more
widespread LLWS tonight with 2 kft winds increasing to 45+ kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 5:32 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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