BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 7:10 AM EDT637
FXUS61 KBOX 091110
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
710 AM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of weak areas of low pressure will traverse across the
Northeast states today and again late tonight into early Monday.
Expect a mix of clouds and sun with blustery conditions today,
with full sun and a rather mild day expected for Monday. Much of
the workweek will be dry and seasonably mild, with the next
chance for precipitation around next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
415 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Early sunshine gives way to partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. While we will have westerly breezes, gusts only
around 25-30 mph today.
* Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, but it may feel closer to the
freezing mark with the breezes.
Details:
Good morning and welcome to Daylight Saving Time. Remember to move
your clocks forward by an hour if you didn't do so before going to
bed last night.
Current conditions across Southern New England are driven by a WNWly
gradient flow from a departing 972 mb low now in the Canadian
Maritimes. Clear skies and rather chilly with current temps running
in the mid 20s to around the freezing mark, with WNW winds around 10-
15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph more common in eastern and
southeast New England. Our weather pattern at 500 mb is being
governed by a seasonably-strong northern stream jet which extends
into the northern Canadian Rockies. Embedded in that NW flow aloft
are a couple of weak-amplitude shortwave disturbances and related
sfc Clipper-lows, one near the eastern Gt Lakes, and another right
on its heels over southern Manitoba/northeast Minnesota. These two
weak features will each move through Southern New England over the
next 24 to 30 hours, although with little sensible-wx fanfare short
of enhanced cloudiness and a freshening of westerly breezes.
Although we'll start today generally clear with a few hrs of
sunshine, diurnal warming is likely to be slower as we move into the
late morning hours with cloud cover now over the eastern Gt Lakes
spreads in, to a partly to mostly cloudy look. Expect winds to begin
to shift to WSW with the approach of the first Clipper low, and
increase to around 10-15 mph with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. Some
model solutions show some spotty, hit or miss precip as cloud cover
moves in, and there has been some spotty shower activity over
western NY, but low levels still look pretty dry and could be
sprinkles if anything develops. Cloud cover may decrease some late
in the day but all in all, it's a generally dry but partly to mostly
cloudy day on the whole with WSW breezes. Kept highs for today in
the upper 30s to the mid 40s, but the breezes will make it feel
colder than that (apparent temps in the upper 20s/around
freezing).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
415 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Partly to mostly cloudy but dry tonight, lows around
freezing.
* Turns sunny and rather mild on Monday with highs in the 50s, with
lowering relative humidities.
Details:
Tonight:
Decreasing clouds and a subtle windshift from WSW winds to westerly
with brief easing of wind speeds/gusts early tonight thru midnight,
as one weak clipper exits offshore. Both are pretty temporary
though, as cloud cover again increases during the late-overnight to
pre-dawn hrs. While the winds will also shift to SW and becoming
around 10-15 mph again, any gusts to 25 mph should be more limited
to the higher terrain. Pretty challenging temperature forecast for
tonight given the changes in cloud cover and wind speeds, but sided
temps on the warmer end of guidance, and it should be a few degrees
warmer than tonight was, in the 30-34 degree range.
Monday:
The second weak Clipper low moves offshore early Monday, giving way
to full sunshine for Monday. Neutral to modest warm advection post-
Clipper on westerly flow seems poised to lead to a rather mild day
with highs well into the 50s! WNWly breezes too, in the 20-25 mph
range.
The only potential concern is fire weather, though meteorological
conditions are borderline. We probably won't mix as well as we have
the past several days, since low level temps aren't especially cold.
Even so, stronger sfc heating should allow for steepening lapse
rates and dewpoints mixing out into the mid 20s. Might be hard
pressed to go lower on the dewpoints without deeper mixing. With
highs in the mid 50s, relative humidities in the 30-35 percent
range should be common in interior Southern New England. Wind
gusts are also around 20-25 mph. Later shifts may need to reach
out to the fire weather partners for their input on possible
need for messaging.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday
Strong low pressure near Hudson Bay draws warm southerly air to the
region for Tuesday. High temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s
under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow. Breezy conditions
continue on Tuesday with 20-30mph gusts out of the South. The
southerly winds will keep the south coast and Cape and Islands
cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Wednesday through Friday:
Temperatures have trended cooler for Wednesday and Thursday after a
cold front moves through the region. High temperatures now look to
struggle to reach the 50s both days under northerly flow Wed and
onshore flow Thursday. Skies Wednesday should be mostly sunny, with
dry air being advected, but with winds turning onshore for Thursday,
skies likely turn mostly cloudy. NBM continues to trend pops down
for Thursday, now less than 20%, which makes sense given the lack of
any discernable upper-level forcing. Some weak mid-level warm air
advection and increased moisture may lead to isolated
showers/sprinkles. Still, Bufkit soundings show low-level dry air
left over from Wednesday. This may lead to more virga than rain
reaching the ground. Temperatures should warm some Friday back into
the mid-50s with warm air advection.
Next weekend:
Guidance is already in good agreement that a strong 500mb closed
trough exiting the central US and moving towards the region late in
the weekend. This will likely be our next best shot at accumulating
rainfall, as the CPCs two-week hazards outlook shows a moderate risk
for heavy precipitation March 15 - 17.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update:
Today: High Confidence.
VFR, though with some SCT-BKN 040-060 bases. WNW/W winds around
10-12 kt with gusts low-20s kt to start, then shift to WSW
10-13 kt with gusts 20-25 knots by mid to late morning. Winds
then shift to WNW late in the day at similar speeds.
Tonight: High Confidence.
VFR. WNW winds becoming SW and less than 10 knots. 925mb Winds
remain between 30-45 knots overnight may cause some LLWS.
Monday: High Confidence
VFR. West winds at 10-15 knots with gusts low 20s kt range.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
415 AM Update:
Gale Warnings have been downgraded to SCAs on all waters, which
continue thru 12z Monday. Although there may be periods where
gusts may be more at borderline-SCA levels (best chance of that
occurring is tonight before picking up again after midnight),
most of the period features westerly gusts in the 25-30 kt
range. Seas in the 4-6 ft range, which may lower some today into
the 3-5 ft range. However seas then increase again into the 4-6
ft range for tonight into Monday, highest on the southern outer
waters.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Loconto/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 7:10 AM EDT----------------
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