IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 11, 9:44 PM EDT191
FXUS63 KIND 120144
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
944 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures expected this week with breezy
conditions at times
- Strong to potentially severe storms Friday night into Saturday
- Gusty winds and heavy rain at times Friday night through Sunday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
A cold front is pushing southward across central Indiana this
evening has made it to about Martinsville as of 930pm. Temperatures
have quickly dropped into the upper 40s and 50s behind the front.
Further north, temperatures are into the low to mid 30s closer to
the lake where cold waters have greater influence.
For this update, we blended in higher resolution guidance to better
capture the fine details associated with the front including
position, temperature gradient, and wind shifts. The front should
slow down with time overnight, before lifting back northward on
Wednesday. The front may meander a bit over the next day or so which
may lead to some local uncertainty regarding temperatures and wind
speed/direction.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Seasonably warm conditions persist through midweek across Central
Indiana. Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies over the entire
region with observations reporting temperatures ranging from the mid
60s in the north to near 70 in parts of Southern Indiana. Min RH
values this afternoon have fallen into the upper 20s to low 30s
percent range, resulting in a very slightly elevated fire weather
risk with dry grounds and sporadic gusts to 20 mph. Any fire weather
risk should quickly diminish after sunset.
A weak frontal boundary is currently sagging southward through North
Central Indiana with winds already out of the north at Lafayette and
Kokomo. This front is largely moisture starved and will have little
impact as it pushes south toward the I-70 corridor tonight. Main
impact from this front will be a wind shift to the north then
northeast overnight and cooler overnight lows for North Central
Indiana. There likely will be a north-south temperature gradient
with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s north of the front
and upper 40s to near 50 south of the I-70 corridor. High clouds
stream in overnight, helping to prevent temperatures from falling
even further.
Another very warm day expected tomorrow as the stalled out frontal
boundary along the I-70 corridor slowly lifts back north. High
clouds increase throughout the day ahead of a system developing in
the southern plains; however enough solar heating and warm air
advection will be present to support widespread highs in the upper
60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Wednesday Night Through Saturday.
An upper level low is expected to move through the Gulf states
Wednesday night into Thursday which could bring a few showers to
southern Indiana. The strength of the low continues to trend downward
with little to no forcing north of the low. Model soundings do show
saturation aloft which will bring mostly cloudy skies expected
through Thursday morning. Highs will be even warmer Thursday with
highs in the low to possibly mid 70s as skies gradually clear
through the morning.
The main focus for the long term period continues to be tracking a
significant low pressure system that will bring gusty winds, heavy
rain, and potentially severe weather Friday night into Saturday.
Little has changed in the overall thoughts with the system which
increases overall confidence as models continue to have good
agreement, especially when looking this far out. Of the 3 threats,
confidence is highest in the gusty winds which if the forecasts pans
out as expected, would be well into the Wind Advisory range of 50
mph with several models indicating the potential for gusts as high
as 60 mph. Lapse rates will be steep enough near the surface for
strong winds during both Friday night and Saturday before the LLJ
begins to weaken towards Saturday night.
The severe threat is conditional with plenty of shear but
instability will be marginal, especially as the best chance for
storms continues to look to be during the overnight.Models often
struggle with easterly extent of nocturnal severe threats. CSU
experimental guidance is fairly bullish even with the marginal
thermal profile. A fast-moving overnight QLCS Friday night with at
least some severe threat persisting is certainly a plausible if not
likely scenario at this point.
Another surge of moisture is expected to push into the Ohio Valley
Saturday night into Sunday with heavy rain and the potential for
flooding, but confidence on this threat is lower as models differ
quite a bit more with the axis of heaviest rain, but general
consensus keeps the heaviest rain across the southeastern counties
into southern Indiana and Kentucky.
Sunday Through Tuesday.
Cooler weather is expected For Sunday but the pattern quickly flips
Sunday night into Monday with strong southerly flow returning and
bringing temperatures back to near 70 by Tuesday. The pattern then
will shift again mid-week with another strong upper level low likely
Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Impacts:
- Cold front moving southward this evening, wind shift to northerly
and then northeasterly behind the front. Winds becoming easterly by
morning.
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Primary impact to aviation will be changing wind direction with time
through the night and during the day Wednesday. A cold front is
slowly moving south across central Indiana with a wind shift to
northerly behind it. A gradual shift to northeasterly is then
expected through the night in the post-front environment. The front
may not make it all the way to BMG so wind direction is a bit
uncertain there and may go light and variable at times.
On Wednesday, winds continue veering becoming easterly or east-
southeasterly. The front looks to lift back northward somewhat
allowing southwesterly winds to return, especially HUF to IND
southward. The front may meander in place Wednesday evening allowing
for additional uncertainty regarding wind direction. We included a
light and variable group near the end of the TAF period to account
for this.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 11, 9:44 PM EDT---------------
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