CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 11, 9:07 PM EDT779
FXUS61 KCLE 120107
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
907 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front continues to move south across the region
this evening before stalling out across central Ohio. The front
will waiver north and south until a low pressure system
approaches from the west and the front moves north on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
905 PM Update...
Made a few adjustments to the overnight lows, actually bringing
them up a degree here and there, but most places remain near
freezing for the lows, or just below in the upper 20s in far NE
OH and NW PA. Still on the breezier side in the wake of the
cold front that came through this afternoon/early evening.
Previous Discussion...
A cold front has started to move across the region this
afternoon and will continue to push southward through the
evening before stalling out across the CWA. Temperatures will
start to decrease steadily behind the front. Observations
upstream in Michigan already have temperatures down in the mid
to low 50s as of 3 PM after topping out in the upper 50s. There
is no precipitation expected with this front as the atmosphere
is fairly dry, there will be some high clouds moving into the
region this evening that will end up being more widespread by
tomorrow morning due to the northern flow across the lake.
Temperatures tonight will bottom out in the upper 20s/low 30s
closer to the lake and the mid 30s further south. Tomorrow,
there will be a strong north-to-south temperature gradient
across the center of the CWA with the stalled front.
Temperatures near the lake will struggle to reach the upper 40s,
whereas further south, temperatures will be in the upper 50s
and may even touch the 60s. With the flow off the lake, there
will be some convergence generating showers across NE OH and NW
PA Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The showers will be
spotty, so opted to continue with low-end PoPs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The end of the week will bring warmer than average temperatures and
mostly dry weather. Upper level ridging will develop across the
Midwest and Great Lakes region on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary
will be stalled out over central Ohio on Thursday. There will be a
light northeasterly flow across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania Thursday. Temperatures will vary across the area with
strong gradient closer to the lakeshore on Thursday. Areas near the
lakeshore will only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s while areas
further inland will reach the lower to middle 60s. An upper level
trough and strong storm system will begin to develop across the
southern Rockies Thursday night and lift out into the Central Plains
region on Friday. A warm front will lift across northern Ohio
Thursday night. A strong low pressure system will track from Central
Plains into the Midwest late on Friday. A deep southerly flow will
develop over the Ohio Valley on Friday. It will feel very much like
spring with high temperatures climbing into the lower and middle
70s Friday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday will bring a round of potentially severe weather across the
region. A strong and well developed low pressure system will lift
out from the Upper Midwest into southern Ontario on Saturday. There
maybe a round of showers and decaying storms moving through from the
previous daytime convection that developed west of area. A large-
scale upper level trough over the central CONUS will move eastward
into the Ohio Valley Saturday. Temperatures will once again climb
into the lower and middle 70s Saturday afternoon. The entire area
has been highlighted in a Day 5 outlook for severe weather by SPC.
It appears that damaging wind gusts will be the main severe weather
hazard but an isolated tornado potential can't be rule out on
Saturday. The large upper level trough will remain over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday with cooler and drier
weather. High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s to end the
weekend and start out early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The wind continues to be the main issue in the wake of a cold
front that came through the region a couple of hours ago in the
late afternoon hours today. Gusts 20-25kts will gradually wane
into the overnight hours and northeast to east winds prevail
less than 12kts after 12Z Wednesday. The cold front will stall
and lift back north with some mid level clouds developing
tonight around FL070, lowering to FL035 for CLE to CAK and
terminals east of that line after 16Z Wednesday. Some
precipitation is possible, light and primarily brief for ERI,
but chances to low for actual TAF mention, even as a TEMPO.
Outlook...VFR conditions expected through Friday. A strong cold
front crosses Saturday night into Sunday with gusty winds and
possible non-VFR conditions during rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over southern Ontario and Quebec will bring a east to
northeast flow over the lake tonight through Thursday. Generally
Northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected tonight through
Thursday. A warm front will lift across the lake Thursday night.
Southerly to southeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots will return by
Friday. A strong low pressure system will track through the Upper
Midwest and western Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday.
Southerly winds will likely increase Friday night through Saturday
evening 15 to 30 knots. Forecast trends may eventually require a
wind-related Small Craft Advisory Friday night into Saturday.
Westerly winds 15 to 20 knots will follow behind a cold front on
Sunday and additional small craft advisories maybe possible.
Warming temperatures will cause additional melting of remaining ice
on Lake Erie. Periods of elevated winds will likely cause chunks of
ice to break offshore and float around. Ice movement will be
hazardous and will greatly dictate wave potential.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23/26
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...26
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 11, 9:07 PM EDT---------------
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