JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 10:45 PM EST208
FXUS63 KJKL 090345 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1045 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend begins Sunday through Tuesday, with well above
normal temperatures expected Tuesday through Friday of next
week.
- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds could result in
near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and/or Wednesday
afternoons.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also fine
tune the low temps for terrain details. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and
keep skies mostly clear. Currently temperatures are running in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s in the south. Meanwhile, amid
northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the low
to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
A much drier air mass in the low-levels is moving over eastern
Kentucky this afternoon under strongly confluent flow aloft. This
dry air will persist through Sunday night for the most part,
though a passing disturbance to the south may bring some low-level
moisture and clouds to far southern areas in the vicinity of
Middlesboro and the Tennessee border Sunday night. To account for
the dryness of the low-level atmosphere, the NBM 5th percentile
was used for dew point temperatures for the entire short-term.
Aloft, mid- and high-level clouds will be on the increase tonight,
but will decrease in thickness during the day Sunday. For this
reason, used the 50th percentile of the NBM probabilistic envelope
rather than the cooler NBM Deterministic for highs on Sunday, which
raise the high temperature forecast around 2 to 3 degrees on
average. These mid- and high-level clouds will thicken once again
Sunday night in far southern areas such as around Middlesboro and
vicinity.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 439 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
Confidence is high that the first half of the long term forecast
period will be defined by a noticeable warming trend and mostly
clear skies. Models generally agree that upper level ridging and
surface high pressure will settle into the Greater Ohio River Valley
after a southern stream low ejects to the east on Monday. Northerly
flow around the backside of that system will turn westerly as the
day progresses, and subsidence is forecast to increase as the
surface high approaches. These synoptics favor mostly clear skies
and efficient diurnal processes for much of the next work week.
Afternoon highs on Monday are poised to climb into the mid 60s, with
overnight ridge-valley splits. Despite valleys cooling into the
mid/upper 30s overnight (ridgetops will be slightly warmer in the
low 40s), sunny skies and strengthening southwesterly surface flow
will favor area-wide highs in the low 70s on Tuesday afternoon.
Similar, slightly warmer conditions continue into Wednesday, but
this "quiet" weather comes with a catch. The airmass in place over
Eastern Kentucky early next week looks very dry, and the NBM 10th
percentile continues to look more reasonable for dewpoints in this
timeframe. During the afternoon hours, RH values are expected to
bottom out near 25%, with winds/wind gusts in the 10-15mph range.
Fire weather interests are encouraged to continue monitoring for any
local burn restrictions next week, as they may be needed.
By Wednesday night, the upper level ridge axis will have propagated
just to the east of the forecast area. Further to the west, an upper
level disturbance will be exiting the Ozarks. Between the two, mid-
level flow becomes more southwesterly, allowing modest amounts of
moisture advection into the region overnight. This leads to the
return of rain chances in the forecast on Thursday morning, but
forecast guidance is really struggling to resolve the evolution of
the parent disturbance. It is generally expected to weaken into an
open wave, which reduces the likelihood of widespread, heavy
precipitation on Thursday. A few light showers remain possible, but
the greatest sensible weather impact may be the slight reduction in
temperatures caused by increased sky cover. Expect a temporary pause
in the warming trend on Thursday afternoon, with highs remaining
near 70.
Headed into next weekend, the attention turns towards a more potent
system in the Great Plains. Guidance resolves this system rapidly
strengthening on Friday before it ejects towards the upper Midwest
on Saturday. Such an evolution would place Eastern Kentucky in a
regime of deep south-southwesterly flow and warm air advection at
the end of the forecast period. As a result, Friday has the
potential to be the warmest day of the year so far. Probabilistic
NBM guidance suggests a greater than 75 percent chance of highs
greater than 75 degrees, and downslope warming may yield localized
instances of 80 degrees in this timeframe. While downsloping could
also limit atmospheric moisture content, the persistence of this
deep layer favors increasing moisture return through Saturday. Rain
chances correspondingly increase at the very end of the forecast
period, but it remains too early to provide specific details about
rainfall amounts or thunderstorm chances. The deep nature of the
parent system lends itself towards heightened levels of shear and
gusty surface winds, but the best instability is currently resolved
by ensembles to the west of our forecast area. While the CPC has
placed portions of the forecast area in a 60% risk for heavy rain
in the extended forecast period, the weather out ahead of this
system looks much drier than what we experienced before the
February 2025 heavy rain event. Next weekend's system is a
different type of atmospheric set-up than that one, and thus the
hydrological responses to precipitation will vary. Nevertheless, we
will be paying close attention to this system over the coming days.
Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR conditions will hold through the period amid periodic high
clouds passing through the area. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts
early will become light and variable this evening and remain that
way through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 10:45 PM EST---------------
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