CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 3:47 AM EDT773
FXUS61 KCLE 090747
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 AM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge focused near the Tennessee and Lower Ohio
Valleys influences our region before a cold front sweeps
southeastward through our area on Tuesday. Behind the front,
another ridge builds from the north-central United States and
vicinity through midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cyclonic WNW'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
troughs impact our region through tonight. On Monday, WNW'erly flow
aloft becomes anticyclonic as a ridge builds over our region from
the interior southwestern and south-central U.S. At the surface, a
ridge axis wavers in vicinity of the OH and TN Valleys through
Monday as this ridge impacts our CWA. However, surface troughs
accompanying the aforementioned shortwave troughs and moving SE'ward
over/near Lake Erie will weaken the surface ridge periodically
through tonight. Moist isentropic ascent and resulting release of
weak potential instability aloft, ahead of a shortwave trough axis,
should generate scattered snow showers over eastern Lake Erie, NW
PA, and far-NE OH through about daybreak this morning. Any snow
accumulations are expected to be less than one inch. Otherwise fair
weather is expected through Monday as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the surface ridge.
Breezy and primarily SW'erly surface winds associated with synoptic-
scale low-level WAA will impact our region through Monday. The WAA
and daytime warming amidst mainly clear to partly cloudy sky will
allow highs to reach the lower to upper 40's in NW PA, the lower
40's to lower 50's in NE OH, and mainly the upper 40's to mid 50's
farther west late this afternoon. The coolest highs (in the 40's)
are expected on the Lake Erie Islands due to onshore flow from ~34F
Lake Erie and along/near the Lake Erie shore from northeastern
Cuyahoga County through Erie County, PA. This is where sufficient
daytime warming of surface air over land surrounding Lake Erie and a
relatively-weak synoptic-scale MSLP gradient, directed generally
toward the south, will likely allow a lake breeze circulation to
occur this afternoon. Tonight's lows are expected to reach the 30's
around daybreak Monday. On Monday, daytime warming amidst mainly
clear sky and continued WAA will allow late afternoon highs to reach
mainly the lower to mid 50's in NW PA, the mid to upper 50's in NE
OH, and the upper 50's to lower 60's farther west. However, cooler
highs in the 40's are expected on the Lake Erie Islands and highs in
the 40's to lower 50's are forecast along/near the Lake Erie shore
from northeastern Cuyahoga County through Erie County, PA due to the
same aforementioned reasons.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will be dry and feature above normal
temperatures. The first half of the period will feature a low
pressure system that will move through northern Ontario. This low
will have a substantial warm sector and allow for temperatures to
surge up into the 50s and 60s with slightly breezy conditions during
the afternoon hours on Tuesday. As this low departs on Tuesday, a
cold front will cross the forecast area on Tuesday night and allow
temperatures to dip a bit. High pressure will be quick to enter
across the Great Lakes region behind the cold front on Wednesday and
given the diurnal minimum timing for the cold front and pace of the
dry high pressure system, have a dry forecast for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday are likely to be achieved
earlier in the day as cold air advection will be battling the
diurnal cycle and highs will be in the 50s. A warm front will enter
on Wednesday night and allow for lows to stay elevated in the
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will be through the forecast area on Thursday and there
could be some spotty showers with some isentropic lift, but the
trends continue to be down for rain on Thursday and have just some
slight chance PoPs. A strong low pressure system will develop over
the central CONUS on Friday and move northeast toward the Great
Lakes region as it occludes. The forecast area will be in the warm
sector of this system on Friday and with largely dry conditions,
temperatures should warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rain
should start to enter late Friday night into Saturday and have PoPs
increasing to likely. Remain concerned about wind on Saturday with a
low level jet entering the region and mixing well to the surface.
Total rainfall amounts for the weekend still look mildly concerning
as rain could be efficient with an abnormally warm air mass.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Cyclonic WNW'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded
disturbances affect our region through 06Z/Mon. Variable amounts
of main mid/upper-level cloudiness are expected along/ahead of
the axes of these disturbances. At the surface, a ridge will
tend to extend NE'ward from the Lower OH Valley into our region.
However, trough axes accompanying the aforementioned
disturbances aloft will sweep SE'ward across Lake Erie and
vicinity, and weaken the ridge periodically. Our regional
surface winds are expected to be SW'erly to WSW'erly around 10
to 15 knots and gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times, especially
between ~18Z and ~22Z/Sun.
Primarily VFR and fair weather are expected through the TAF
period. However, a disturbance embedded in the flow aloft should
generate scattered snow showers over/near far-NE OH and NW PA,
including KERI, through ~13Z/Sun. Periodic MVFR visibility
should accompany these snow showers.
Outlook...Fair weather and VFR expected this Monday through
Wednesday. Scattered rain showers with non-VFR possible this
Wednesday night through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
The pressure gradient across the lake is strengthening just a bit
this morning to allow for southwest to west winds to increase to the
15 to 20 kt range and waves in ice free areas of the central basin
could reach 3 to 4 feet. A ridge to the south will return later
today and remain influential over the lake through Monday, allowing
for more benign southwest flow. A strong low pressure system will
move through northern Ontario on Monday night into Tuesday and
southerly winds will increase across the lake on Tuesday, close to
needing a marine headline. A cold front will cross the lake later on
Tuesday and winds will shift to the north. Northeast flow will be
favored for Wednesday as high pressure quickly enters behind the
front. High pressure will slide east for Thursday and allow a warm
front through the region. Flow will back around to the southeast
behind the front. Any remaining ice on Lake Erie will be both
diminishing and moving around the basin with warmer temperatures and
periods of elevated winds. This ice could be hazardous with its
movement and will greatly dictate wave potential this week.&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 3:47 AM EDT---------------
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